// definition
CBO
Congressional Budget Office
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Short definition
The independent, non-partisan budget agency of the US Congress, created in 1974. It recommends no policy but prices the consequences of each. Its projections serve as the common reference, under current-law assumptions.
risk atlas
Knowledge map
Intuition
The CBO provides the reference fiscal scenario that separates political noise from the debt trajectory.
Why it matters now
Its projections feed the reading of structural vulnerability, especially as interest becomes a visible share of the deficit.
Related analyses
- The return of the term premiumDecomposing the long rate and the US debt regime.
Related guides
- Reading the CBO outlookFiscal trajectory and the interest bill.
Related datasets
- risk.jsonPublic snapshot of the risk signals.
- debt-risk.jsonDebt Risk Radar snapshot with provenance.
- risk-diff.json1, 7 and 30-day diff of signals, sources and models.
- signals/history.jsonPoint-in-time history of the signals.
Signals using it
- MethodologyDebt, interest burden, current stress and structural vulnerability.
- Risk DiffRecent change in risk and source freshness.
- Black Box RecorderHashed frames to replay a point-in-time state.
Primary sources
- Federal Reserve & FREDRates, the Fed balance sheet, FRED series and the New York Fed ACM model.
- U.S. Treasury Fiscal DataDebt, Treasury cash, DTS and auctions.
- U.S. Treasury TICCross-border holdings and flows of Treasuries.
- Congress.gov, GovInfo & CBOBudget projections, texts and estimates.
- Bank for International SettlementsGlobal debt, banks and market fragilities.