// definition
Yield curve
Yields across maturities
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Short definition
The set of government yields across maturities. Normally upward-sloping; its inversion, short rates above long rates, preceded each of the last eight US recessions. Its slope informs as much as its level.
risk atlas
Knowledge map
Intuition
The curve separates the level of rates, the slope and the shape. It ties together monetary policy, expected growth and the price of time.
Formula
10-2 slope = 10-year yield - 2-year yieldWhy it matters now
A re-steepening curve can signal the return of duration risk rather than simple monetary easing.
Related analyses
- The return of the term premiumDecomposing the long rate and the US debt regime.
- Warsh and the Fed balance sheetFed balance sheet, QT and rate conditions.
Related guides
- Reading the Treasuries marketCurve, auctions, holders and the term premium.
- How to read H.4.1The Fed balance sheet and bank reserves.
Related datasets
- risk.jsonPublic snapshot of the risk signals.
- debt-risk.jsonDebt Risk Radar snapshot with provenance.
- risk-diff.json1, 7 and 30-day diff of signals, sources and models.
- signals/history.jsonPoint-in-time history of the signals.
Signals using it
- MethodologyDebt, interest burden, current stress and structural vulnerability.
- Risk DiffRecent change in risk and source freshness.
- Black Box RecorderHashed frames to replay a point-in-time state.
Primary sources
- Federal Reserve & FREDRates, the Fed balance sheet, FRED series and the New York Fed ACM model.
- U.S. Treasury Fiscal DataDebt, Treasury cash, DTS and auctions.
- U.S. Treasury TICCross-border holdings and flows of Treasuries.
- Congress.gov, GovInfo & CBOBudget projections, texts and estimates.
- Bank for International SettlementsGlobal debt, banks and market fragilities.