l0g risk intelligence · english

$ ls /en/guides

English reference guides

Long-form, sourced, durable guides translated from the French l0g corpus. This English section is intentionally limited to guides: the rest of l0g.fr remains primarily French. 32 guides are currently available in English.

$ ls /en/guides/macro

6 guides

Macro data

6 min read guide How to Read CBO Forecasts: the Budget Baseline and Its Traps A reference guide to the Congressional Budget Office: what this independent budget referee is, what it publishes, how to read a baseline through deficits, debt-to-GDP and net interest, the misunderstood current-law convention that makes it a benchmark rather than a forecast, the difference between static and dynamic scoring, and how sensitive long-term projections are to interest-rate and productivity assumptions. With 2026 figures as illustration. 15 min read guide How to Read CPI: U.S. Inflation, Measure by Measure A reference guide to the Consumer Price Index: what the BLS actually measures, how the basket is built, why shelter accounts for about a third of it, the difference between headline, core and supercore inflation, the traps between raw and seasonally adjusted data, level and change, and why the Fed targets PCE rather than CPI. With May 2026 as a case study, when energy drove the headline. 10 min read guide How to Read the U.S. Jobs Report: NFP and Its Traps A reference guide to the BLS Employment Situation: the two surveys that can contradict each other, what NFP really measures, the ±122,000 confidence interval that makes a single print fragile, monthly revisions and the annual benchmark revision that erased 911,000 jobs, the difference between U3 and U6, and why a falling unemployment rate can be bad news. With the May 2026 report as a case study. 5 min read guide How to Read JOLTS: under the hood of the U.S. labor market A reference guide to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey: what JOLTS measures that payrolls do not, the five key numbers (openings, hires, quits, layoffs, total separations), the quits rate as a confidence gauge, the job-openings-to-unemployed ratio watched by the Fed, the Beveridge curve, measurement traps, and the 2026 regime of a frozen low-turnover labor market. 8 min read guide How to Read PCE: the Inflation Gauge the Fed Actually Targets A reference guide to the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index: what the BEA measures, why it is broader than CPI, how the chained Fisher formula captures substitutions, why health care carries so much weight, how to distinguish headline PCE, core PCE and market-based PCE, what Dallas Fed trimmed mean and Cleveland Fed median PCE add, and why the Fed's 2% target is defined on PCE rather than CPI. Uses May 2026 as a case study, when core PCE ran above core CPI. 4 min read guide How to Read M2 Money Supply: liquidity signal, bad readings and risk-on narratives A complete guide to U.S. M2: the Federal Reserve definition, what it measures and does not measure, the 2020 explosion and 2023 contraction, and a disciplined reading of its link with risk assets and crypto. The correlation exists, but it is fragile, conditional on velocity and macro regime, and fixed-lag models often amount to overfitting.

$ ls /en/guides/fed

6 guides

Fed, debt & liquidity

11 min read guide Reading a bank's soundness: capital, liquidity and hidden losses A reference guide to judging a bank's soundness: the difference between solvency and liquidity, capital ratios (CET1, leverage ratio) and liquidity ratios (LCR, NSFR), the trap of unrealized losses buried in a held-to-maturity portfolio, the fragility of the liability side and uninsured deposits, and why a profitable bank can vanish in 48 hours. With the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank as the case study. 6 min read guide How to Read the Dot Plot and the SEP: the Fed’s Projections, Without the Misread A reference guide to the Federal Reserve dot plot and Summary of Economic Projections: what the dots really show, why they are neither a plan nor a forecast but a median of individual views on appropriate policy, how to read the central tendency, the neutral rate and the gap with market pricing. With the June 2026 SEP, the first under Warsh, where the 2026 median flipped from an implied cut to an implied hike. 6 min read guide How to Read Liquidity: Reserves, TGA, RRP and the Net-Liquidity Proxy A reference guide to financial-system liquidity: the three taps of bank reserves, the Treasury General Account and reverse repos, the net-liquidity formula markets follow and its limits, how to read the plumbing from primary sources, and the 2026 regime after the end of quantitative tightening. 8 min read guide How to Read the Repo Market: SOFR, the Rate Corridor and Reserve Scarcity A reference guide to U.S. secured-funding plumbing: what repo is, how SOFR is produced and on what volume it rests, the Fed’s rate corridor (IORB, RRP, SRF, EFFR), how to read the SOFR-IORB spread as a reserve-scarcity thermometer, the anatomy of a stress episode with September 2019, quarter-end and year-end jumps, and the 2026 regime after the end of quantitative tightening. 5 min read guide How to Read H.4.1: the Fed Balance Sheet, Line by Line A reference guide to H.4.1, the weekly release detailing the Federal Reserve balance sheet. What the Fed holds, where liquidity goes, why bank reserves are a residual, how to read quantitative tightening in the table, and the traps to know before drawing any conclusion. 4 min read guide How to Read TIC Data: who really finances U.S. debt A reference guide to Treasury International Capital data: what monthly flows and the Major Foreign Holders table measure, why Japan ranks ahead of the UK and China, and above all the custody bias that assigns Treasuries to the custodian country rather than the true owner. Belgium, Luxembourg, the Caymans, undercounted basis-trade hedge funds and the declining official share: what the data shows and distorts.

$ ls /en/guides/markets

15 guides

Markets, SEC filings & positioning

10 min read guide Reading dealer gamma: when options hedging drives the market A reference guide to options positioning and market-maker gamma: what delta and gamma are, why dealers mechanically hedge their options in the underlying, the decisive difference between long gamma that dampens volatility and short gamma that amplifies it, the rise of 0DTE options, and the precedents of the 2018 Volmageddon and the GameStop gamma squeeze. How an invisible force sets part of the market's moves. 10 min read guide Reading the carry trade: borrow low, invest high, and manage the unwind A reference guide to the carry trade: how you borrow in a low-yielding funding currency to invest in a higher-yielding asset and pocket the gap, why the strategy amounts to selling volatility, the role of leverage, the mechanics of the unwind that sank the Nikkei 12% in a single session in August 2024, and the dials to watch to gauge the risk. With the yen as the guiding thread. 6 min read guide How to Read the CFTC COT Report: Who Is Positioned, and How to Know A reference guide to the Commitments of Traders, the weekly CFTC release that reveals large-trader positioning on futures markets. Which reports to read, which categories carry the signal, how classification is done, and which blind spots to know before drawing conclusions. 8 min read guide How to Read Credit Spreads: OAS, Quality Scale and Stress Signal A reference guide to credit spreads: what the yield gap between a corporate bond and a Treasury measures, why OAS is the reference measure, the quality ladder from investment grade to CCC, how to decompose a spread into expected loss, risk premium and liquidity premium, the role of CDS and CDX indexes, and how to read spreads as a forward stress signal. With 2026 levels near the tightest since 2007 and the market-complacency debate. 9 min read guide How to Read the Dollar: DXY, Cross-Currency Basis and Offshore Dollar Debt A reference guide to the dollar as the world’s funding currency: what DXY really measures and why its basket is biased, why the Fed’s broad dollar index is a better compass, covered interest parity and its post-2008 break, cross-currency basis as the hidden price of dollars and a funding-stress thermometer, FX swaps as off-balance-sheet repo, the missing dollar debt estimated by the BIS, Fed swap lines as the offshore backstop, and the crucial distinction between the reserve dollar and the funding dollar. With the 2026 regime as illustration. 8 min read guide How to Read the Treasury Market: Auctions, Curve and Term Premium A reference guide to U.S. government debt: the composition of the market, from bills to notes and bonds; quarterly refunding and auction mechanics; how to read an auction through bid-to-cover, tail and dealer takedown; what the shape of the yield curve signals; how to decompose a long yield into rate expectations and term premium; who owns the debt; and which stress thermometers to watch. With 2026 figures as illustration. 7 min read guide How to Analyze SEC Form 13F Filings A reference guide to Form 13F: who files, when, what it contains, how to read it on EDGAR, and above all its blind spots. A quarterly rear-view mirror of long positions, powerful only if its limits are understood. 5 min read guide How to Read a 10-K Without Drowning: the SEC Annual Report A reference guide to reading a Form 10-K: the map of the document, where to start, how to separate a real risk factor from boilerplate, how to read MD&A and the financial statement notes, and how to spot control weaknesses. The most complete document on a listed U.S. company, read by priority. 5 min read guide Reading the gold market: London, Comex, paper versus physical A reference guide to the gold market: why gold is not a normal commodity, where its price is formed between London's OTC market and Comex futures, the paper-versus-physical mechanics (EFP, lease rates, contango), the real drivers of price (real rates, dollar, central banks, debasement), and the role of gold as a reserve asset. 5 min read guide How to Read Volatility: VIX and MOVE, the market fear gauges A reference guide to implied-volatility indices: what VIX measures for equities and MOVE for bonds, how they are built, how to read levels and term structure, why VIX and MOVE sometimes diverge, common traps, and the 2026 regime in which both are low. 4 min read guide Reading the uranium market: fuel cycle, prices and bottlenecks A reference guide to the uranium market: the fuel cycle from mine to reactor, why uranium pricing is mostly private contracts rather than an exchange, reactor demand, concentrated and slow supply, the conversion and enrichment bottleneck, and the indicators to follow. 6 min read guide Reading the oil market: price, curve, supply and data A reference guide to the oil market: Brent versus WTI and why two benchmark prices coexist, how price is formed between paper and physical markets, what contango and backwardation say about the balance, the role of OPEC+ and spare capacity, strategic stocks, and the data calendar to follow. 5 min read guide Schedule 13D vs 13G: activism or passive ownership A reference guide to SEC Schedules 13D and 13G: the same 5% ownership threshold, two disclosures whose real difference is intent. Schedule 13D signals influence, often activism; Schedule 13G signals passive ownership. Accelerated deadlines since 2024, the purpose-of-transaction item, group doctrine, and how to read the filings on EDGAR. 5 min read guide How to Read Private Credit: the risk you cannot see A reference guide to private credit: what it is, why it grew, and how to read risk without a market price. Model valuations, PIK interest, NAV loans, gated redemptions: the four blind spots, the vehicle glossary, and the lessons from the 2025-2026 stress sequence. 6 min read guide How to Read SEC Form 4: insider transactions without the noise A reference guide to SEC Form 4: who files it, when, and how to separate signal from noise. Most insider transactions say little; open-market purchases matter. Transaction codes, the 10b5-1 checkbox, purchases versus sales, and how to read the filing on EDGAR.

$ ls /en/guides/crypto

5 guides

Crypto & regulation

5 min read guide GENIUS Act: who enforces what in U.S. stablecoin regulation? A reference guide to GENIUS Act enforcement: which regulator supervises which kind of stablecoin issuer, how the federal and state entry points work, why a permitted issuer becomes a financial institution subject to sanctions law, and why the July 18, 2026 implementation deadline remains tight. 5 min read guide Reading on-chain data: what the blockchain shows, and what it hides A reference guide to on-chain data: public permanent ledgers versus delayed regulatory filings, how to read activity (active addresses, exchange flows), valuation metrics (realised cap, MVRV, SOPR, NVT), DeFi TVL and its double-counting traps, and the blind spots that make interpretation hard. 6 min read guide MiCA, acronym by acronym: decoding Europe's crypto rulebook A reference guide to MiCA: the three crypto-asset categories (EMT, ART and other crypto-assets), the CASP licence, who supervises what across national competent authorities, the EBA and ESMA, the caps on non-euro stablecoins designed to defend monetary sovereignty, and the end of the transition period on July 1, 2026. 5 min read guide OFAC and the SDN List: can sanctions target code? A reference guide to OFAC and the Specially Designated Nationals List: how the world's most powerful financial-sanctions tool works, the 50 percent rule, its reach into crypto, stablecoin freezes, and the legal limit drawn by U.S. courts in 2025 when Tornado Cash was delisted. 7 min read guide Stablecoins and the GENIUS Act: reading the promise of the digital dollar A reference guide to stablecoins and the GENIUS Act: how a token holds its peg, what the July 2025 U.S. law actually requires, why an attestation is not an audit, how to read a reserve report, and why this $320 billion market has become a buyer of U.S. Treasury bills.