Macro, crypto, finance — analyses and weak signals from l0g.fr, in English. By Bluetouff.https://l0g.fr/enhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/high-yield-holds-up-while-investment-grade-flees/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/high-yield-holds-up-while-investment-grade-flees/US investment-grade bond funds face record outflows while high yield still attracts money. Duration explains the paradox first, but early credit signals call for a more careful reading.Sat, 25 Jul 2026 15:06:13 GMTmarketsbondscreditratessystemic riskhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-ghost-kilowatt/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-ghost-kilowatt/The White House pledge says data centers will pay for their grid. US tariffs reveal the real mechanism: minimum payments, collateral, stranded assets and the risk of shifting costs to other ratepayers.Sat, 25 Jul 2026 08:39:51 GMTaidata centerselectricityinfrastructureriskregulationus policyhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/when-the-barrel-becomes-a-margin-call/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/when-the-barrel-becomes-a-margin-call/A producer can be hedged against an oil-price rise and still run short of cash. Futures, margins, banks and the 2022 precedent: a sourced anatomy of the liquidity risk behind the barrel.Fri, 24 Jul 2026 14:55:16 GMToilliquidityderivativessystemic riskbanksmacrohttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/china-open-source-ai-strategy-vs-capex-bubble/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/china-open-source-ai-strategy-vs-capex-bubble/On 17 July 2026, Moonshot released Kimi K3, billed as the world's largest open-source model, while Qwen passed a billion downloads and DeepSeek keeps shipping under a permissive licence. Read through a financial lens, this is not a technology race, it is a deflationary weapon. China is collapsing the price of intelligence just as US giants commit $725 billion of capex whose return assumes a margin that free models are melting away.Thu, 23 Jul 2026 21:31:00 GMTaichinadebtsystemic riskmacromarketshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/fed-trapped-by-the-barrel-data-before-july-fomc/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/fed-trapped-by-the-barrel-data-before-july-fomc/On 23 July 2026, Brent crosses $100 again on the Iranian escalation, six days before a Federal Reserve meeting. Yet the latest hard data, June CPI, shows inflation cooling to 3.5%, core at 2.6%. The Fed is looking at a rearview mirror that is calming while the windshield catches fire. The barrel does not push it to raise rates, it removes its option to cut them. A reading of the data, with no forecast on the decision.Thu, 23 Jul 2026 16:18:00 GMTfedinflationoilratesmacromarketshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/clarity-act-bill-text-sectoral-impact-analysis/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/clarity-act-bill-text-sectoral-impact-analysis/The CLARITY Act text as reported in the Senate runs to 594 pages and in fact contains two laws: a full overhaul of digital-asset regulation and a ban on a central bank digital currency. Its keystone is a maturity test that shifts an asset from the SEC to the CFTC. A section-by-section sectoral impact analysis of the official text: issuers, exchanges, DeFi, stablecoins, banks, and the blind spots. Nothing invented, everything sourced to the text.Thu, 23 Jul 2026 08:56:00 GMTclarity actcryptoregulationus politicsstablecoinshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/who-buys-the-bill-deluge-us-treasury-marginal-buyer/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/who-buys-the-bill-deluge-us-treasury-marginal-buyer/The US Treasury is issuing $671 billion net this quarter, largely short-term bills, just as the cushion that funded those purchases, the reverse repo facility, has fallen to $1.2 billion. Without that shock absorber, the question becomes: who steps in? The giant but fickle money market funds, the stablecoins the law forces to buy, foreign holders whose demand is changing in nature, and capacity-constrained banks. An X-ray of an order book that has changed composition.Thu, 23 Jul 2026 07:48:00 GMTus treasurybondsstablecoinsmoney market fundsmacromarketshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/fed-rrp-drained-tga-rebuild-reserves-liquidity-2026/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/fed-rrp-drained-tga-rebuild-reserves-liquidity-2026/The Fed's reverse repo facility, which absorbed up to $2.5 trillion, has fallen to $1.2 billion: it is empty. Yet the US Treasury must rebuild its cash account and is borrowing $671 billion net this quarter. The cushion that softened every liquidity drain is gone, and the next drain now runs straight through bank reserves. A stealth tightening, unvoted, purely mechanical, that the Fed is watching closely.Wed, 22 Jul 2026 13:10:00 GMTfedliquidityrepous treasurysystemic riskmacrohttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/eurozone-credit-tightening-ecb-survey-private-credit-crack/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/eurozone-credit-tightening-ecb-survey-private-credit-crack/On 21 July 2026, the European Central Bank published its quarterly bank lending survey. The easy headline says banks are tightening again; the figures say the opposite for firms, whose access hardens far less than feared and whose demand is picking up. The real strain is elsewhere: on households, and above all in the channel that regulation itself fed, private credit, where the Financial Stability Board sees vulnerabilities building. An X-ray of two credit channels diverging.Wed, 22 Jul 2026 08:29:00 GMTcreditbanksecbsystemic riskprivate creditmacrohttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/clarity-act-trump-concedes-ethics-august-countdown/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/clarity-act-trump-concedes-ethics-august-countdown/On the evening of 20 July 2026, Donald Trump agreed to an ethics provision in the CLARITY Act, the very obstacle he embodied. Three days earlier, the Senate's merged draft had come out without that clause, drawing the outright opposition of three Democratic senators. The final text is not public, Democrats have not seen it, and about ten session days remain before the 7 August recess. An X-ray of a race against the clock, with dated scenarios.Tue, 21 Jul 2026 13:51:00 GMTcryptoregulationus politicsstablecoinshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/japan-fiscal-dominance-honebuto-shock-boj-cornered/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/japan-fiscal-dominance-honebuto-shock-boj-cornered/On 21 July 2026, the Japanese 30-year yields 3.90%, the 40-year 3.91%, the 10-year has jumped 122 basis points in a year. The trigger was not a jittery market but a text: the Takaichi cabinet wrote into its budget guidelines that monetary policy should serve its growth agenda, omitting the clause guaranteeing the BoJ's independence. On the heaviest sovereign debt stock in the developed world, at 204% of GDP, fiscal dominance stops being a theory. An X-ray of a cornered central bank.Tue, 21 Jul 2026 13:05:00 GMTjapanjgbbojdebtmacromarketshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/argentina-the-imf-largest-ever-exposure/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/argentina-the-imf-largest-ever-exposure/As of 17 July 2026, Argentina owes SDR 42.55 billion to the IMF, 46% of the outstanding credit of the Fund's general lending window, the largest exposure the institution has ever taken on a single country. While Buenos Aires lines up disinflation, a fiscal surplus and country risk at its lowest since 2018, the creditor has concentrated its portfolio, its income and its credibility on one programme. An X-ray of a dependence that runs both ways, ahead of Kristalina Georgieva's visit on 28-29 July.Mon, 20 Jul 2026 21:39:00 GMTimfargentinadebtmacromarketshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/gulf-thirst-desalination-financial-achilles-heel/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/gulf-thirst-desalination-financial-achilles-heel/Two Iranian strikes in two days on Kuwait's desalination plants, and an obvious fact markets have not yet priced: the world's richest creditors, four to six trillion dollars of sovereign wealth funds, depend for their drinking water on a handful of coastal installations sitting exactly where the missiles fall. Oil has strategic reserves measured in months; the Gulf's water is counted in days.Mon, 20 Jul 2026 14:19:00 GMTgeopoliticsenergywaterriskiranhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/china-deflation-shock-absorber-and-poison/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/china-deflation-shock-absorber-and-poison/China has just officially exited three years of quasi-deflation, but by pushing record surpluses out the door: $412 billion of exports in June, a record surplus with Europe, electric vehicle exports doubling while only three brands stay profitable. The deflation has not disappeared, it has emigrated, and it is cushioning the Western oil shock at this very moment. The ECB has quantified the effect; European industry is footing the bill.Mon, 20 Jul 2026 13:04:00 GMTchinamacroinflationgeopoliticsmarketshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/emerging-markets-double-squeeze-dollar-oil/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/emerging-markets-double-squeeze-dollar-oil/Brent back at $88, a greenback at a thirteen-month high fuelled by Fed hike bets, emerging currencies that have erased their 2026 gains: the vice of 2022 is being reassembled piece by piece. Facing it, emerging sovereign spreads asleep at multi-year lows and an IMF already lending at record levels. An X-ray of the gap between the mechanics and the pricing.Mon, 20 Jul 2026 09:37:00 GMTmacrodollardebtgeopoliticsemerging marketshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-end-of-bund-scarcity/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-end-of-bund-scarcity/For a decade, the German federal bond was a rationed asset: the debt brake on one side, massive ECB purchases on the other. That regime is dead. The Bund yields 3.14%, above the swap rate for the first time in its history, Germany will issue €511 billion this year, and the market must absorb what the central bank used to make unfindable. An X-ray of a regime change that is redrawing the entire European curve.Sun, 19 Jul 2026 16:57:00 GMTeuropebondsratesmarketsliquidityhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/ecb-2011-remake-oil-shock/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/ecb-2011-remake-oil-shock/On Thursday 23 July the ECB decides, one month after its first rate hike since 2023, voted amid a war-driven oil surge in the Middle East. The last time it raised rates into an imported supply shock was 2011: the mistake made it into the textbooks. The resemblances, the differences, and the paradox of the moment, with inflation cooling just as the barrel reheats.Sun, 19 Jul 2026 16:15:00 GMTeuropecentral banksmacroratesenergyhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/europe-borrows-without-debt/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/europe-borrows-without-debt/NGEU, the Ukraine loan, SAFE: the European Union has become one of the continent's largest issuers, with a trillion euros of outstandings expected by the end of 2026, without a single euro showing up in any member state's debt. An X-ray of a de facto federal debt, built one temporary programme at a time, whose repayment starts in 2028 with no payer yet identified.Sun, 19 Jul 2026 16:14:00 GMTeuropedebtbondsmacrohttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/euroclear-the-opaque-vault-of-europe/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/euroclear-the-opaque-vault-of-europe/A Brussels depository safekeeping €44 trillion in securities, €200 billion of immobilised Russian assets, a record Moscow judgment upheld on 17 July, and a reparations loan dividing the EU's 27 member states. An investigation into the most discreet and most systemic piece of financial infrastructure on the continent, now a geopolitical battleground.Sat, 18 Jul 2026 08:14:00 GMTeuropegeopoliticssanctionscentral bankssystemic riskmarketshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/chip-relapse-bear-market-record-profits/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/chip-relapse-bear-market-record-profits/The semiconductor index has lost more than 20% since its late-June record and entered a bear market, while TSMC posts profit up 77% and analysts raise their Nvidia estimates. The correction is not hitting profits, it is hitting the multiple. Anatomy of a derating: Meta selling its surplus compute, a delayed Gemini, a hawkish Fed again, and a rotation into memory that reshuffles the AI bet instead of closing it.Fri, 17 Jul 2026 18:46:00 GMTaimarketssemiconductorsmacrovaluationshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/truth-api-presidential-speech-market-data-feed/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/truth-api-presidential-speech-market-data-feed/On 16 July, Trump Media announced Truth API, a paid feed selling algorithmic traders a few milliseconds' head start on the president's posts. The same day, the White House teleprompter operator was suspended for betting on Trump's speeches via Kalshi. Two stories, one underlying: the presidential word has become a tradable asset, and the information rent now comes with a subscription plan.Fri, 17 Jul 2026 12:48:00 GMTmarketsus politicsregulationconflicts of interestmicrostructurehttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/gulf-ghost-tankers-the-meter-is-running/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/gulf-ghost-tankers-the-meter-is-running/The blockade reimposed on 14 July closes the trap on the Gulf's oil fleet again. One figure is doing the rounds, 230 loaded tankers stuck; satellite tracking tells a different story. An autopsy of the count, then the real accounting of a closed strait: demurrage above $100,000 per ship per day, war risk premiums settled at 5% of hull value, and a 20% toll on top.Fri, 17 Jul 2026 09:58:00 GMToilenergygeopoliticsiransupply chainmarketshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/strategic-petroleum-reserves-buffer-round-two/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/strategic-petroleum-reserves-buffer-round-two/The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to 316.5 million barrels, its lowest since 1983, after the record 400-million-barrel release coordinated by the IEA in March. The blockade reimposed on 14 July reopens the supply shock with dented shock absorbers. A quantified inventory of the remaining cushions, of the only buffer still full, China's, and of the oil market's real safety margins.Fri, 17 Jul 2026 07:40:00 GMToilenergymacrogeopoliticscommoditiesiranhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/nav-loans-the-hidden-fund-level-leverage/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/nav-loans-the-hidden-fund-level-leverage/Starved of exits, private equity and private credit funds borrow against the net asset value of their entire portfolio. The NAV loan market reached about $70 billion deployed in 2025 and could triple by 2030. Mechanics, the controversial use of borrowed distributions, leverage on leverage, the ILPA framework and the model's defence: a breakdown of the most discreet link in the private credit chain.Thu, 16 Jul 2026 19:40:00 GMTprivate creditprivate equityleveragesystemic riskvaluationliquidityhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-august-clocks-us-iran-memorandum-deadlines/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-august-clocks-us-iran-memorandum-deadlines/Signed on 17 June, the US-Iran memorandum was meant to lift the blockade within 30 days and open 60 days of negotiations. Strikes resumed, Washington reimposed the blockade, and the text no longer drives events. What remains of the calendar, the risks around Hormuz, and the indicators to watch.Thu, 16 Jul 2026 12:40:00 GMTgeopoliticsoiliranmacromarketsus politicshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/life-insurers-retirement-savings-private-credit-bermuda/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/life-insurers-retirement-savings-private-credit-bermuda/Nearly a third of the $5.6 trillion in US life insurers' assets is invested in private credit. Behind that figure, a model industrialised by Apollo and Athene: gather annuities, cede the reserves to an affiliated Bermuda reinsurer, and turn illiquid loans into privately rated bonds. A breakdown of the triangle, the 777 Re precedent, and the model's defence.Thu, 16 Jul 2026 07:55:00 GMTinsuranceprivate creditsystemic riskbermudaregulationretirementhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/residual-value-guarantee-ai-infrastructure-credit/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/residual-value-guarantee-ai-infrastructure-credit/AI data centers are increasingly financed off balance sheet, through vehicles that lease the hardware and rely on a residual value guarantee. Meta signed one over sixteen years for Hyperion. A breakdown of the structure, the chip-depreciation risk, and the precedent of the 2008 auto-leasing bust.Wed, 15 Jul 2026 21:55:00 GMTprivate creditaidata centerssystemic riskvaluationleasinghttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/basel-iii-rollback-us-regulators-bank-capital/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/basel-iii-rollback-us-regulators-bank-capital/The final stage of Basel III was meant to raise the capital of the largest US banks by 19%. Under the Fed's new leadership, the March 2026 re-proposal instead delivers net relief of about $87.7bn, alongside the reform of the leverage ratio and the softening of stress tests. An analysis of a rollback, its rationale, and the risk it displaces.Wed, 15 Jul 2026 21:40:00 GMTbanksregulationsystemic riskprivate creditfedus politicshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/stablecoins-the-marginal-buyer-of-us-treasuries/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/stablecoins-the-marginal-buyer-of-us-treasuries/The GENIUS Act turned stablecoin issuers into structural buyers of short-dated US debt. Tether already weighs like a country among the Treasury's creditors. This captive demand compresses short yields, but a BIS study shows an outflow raises yields more than an inflow lowers them. An analysis of the transmission channel, from crypto to sovereign debt.Wed, 15 Jul 2026 20:15:00 GMTstablecoinscredittreasurydollarsystemic riskcryptohttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/iran-war-tankers-and-energy-infrastructure-inventory/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/iran-war-tankers-and-energy-infrastructure-inventory/Since the strikes of 28 February 2026, the war around Iran has targeted oil and gas on two fronts: major energy sites, from South Pars to Ras Laffan, and dozens of merchant ships. As complete an inventory as the sources allow, with its degrees of certainty made explicit.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 14:20:00 GMTgeopoliticsenergyiranoilgashttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-2026-iran-war-economic-political-earthquake/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-2026-iran-war-economic-political-earthquake/How a regional conflict is redrawing inflation, alliances, and the domestic politics of every great power. Energy shock, stagflation, food crisis, geopolitical recomposition and three scenarios to 2027.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 14:10:00 GMTgeopoliticsmacroenergyhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/hormuz-supply-chain-the-bill-is-already-here/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/hormuz-supply-chain-the-bill-is-already-here/The mid-June ceasefire took the war premium out of oil prices, but not the ships out of the queues. Five months after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the damage to the global supply chain is already measurable: doubled freight, European gas under strain, rationed fertiliser. A quantified, sourced assessment.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 14:00:00 GMTgeopoliticsenergysupply chainmacrocommoditieshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/cushing-the-terminal-that-sets-wti/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/cushing-the-terminal-that-sets-wti/The Cushing tanks, the delivery point of the WTI contract, fell to about 19.7 million barrels in late June 2026, close to their operating floor. An explainer of this pipeline crossroads, a read of the EIA data and scenarios, including one where China starts buying again.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 13:50:00 GMToilcommoditiesmacrowtichinahttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/hormuz-crisis-asia-economic-toll/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/hormuz-crisis-asia-economic-toll/A quantified, sourced assessment of the effects of the Strait of Hormuz blockade on Asia, from India to Japan: revised growth, imported inflation, industrial shortages, food threat. As the 17 June MoU begins a fragile reopening, the cumulative bill stays heavy and will take months to absorb.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 13:40:00 GMTgeopoliticsenergyasiamacrooilinflationhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/hormuz-reopens-three-oil-scenarios/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/hormuz-reopens-three-oil-scenarios/The 14 June US-Iran deal reopens the Strait of Hormuz, signing on the 19th in Geneva. But the deal took out the war premium, not the damage. A quantified, sourced analysis of the traffic recovery and three Brent price trajectories.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 13:30:00 GMTgeopoliticsenergymacrooilhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/us-iran-memorandum-june-2026/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/us-iran-memorandum-june-2026/The memorandum of understanding signed on 17 June at the Palace of Versailles between Washington and Tehran, in force at once, stops the fire but settles nothing. It validates Iranian leverage over Hormuz, sidelines Israel and fractures a US political class now critical on both flanks. A sourced read of the geopolitical consequences and the US political risk.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 13:20:00 GMTiranunited statesgeopoliticsoiltrumpus politicshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/lebanon-forgotten-loser-syrian-gamble/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/lebanon-forgotten-loser-syrian-gamble/Israel occupies nearly a fifth of Lebanon, the promised gas remains a mirage, and Donald Trump now suggests that al-Sharaa's Syria deal with Hezbollah. A documented analysis of a country that asked for nothing and that no one wants to rebuild, while Iran is promised $300bn.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 13:10:00 GMTlebanonisraelhezbollahsyriageopoliticstrumpgashttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/aid-cuts-fertiliser-shock-food-risk/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/aid-cuts-fertiliser-shock-food-risk/USAID dismantled in 2025, the Strait of Hormuz disrupted in 2026: two shocks stack on the same importing countries. What the WFP, FAO and Lancet numbers actually say, without extrapolation.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 13:00:00 GMTgeopoliticsmacroenergyhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/copper-shortage-hormuz-el-nino/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/copper-shortage-hormuz-el-nino/An updated overview of the copper market as of 26 June 2026: LME price, ICSG data, sulphuric acid, the Strait of Hormuz, El Niño and electrification demand.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 12:50:00 GMTmacromarketsgeopoliticsenergycopperhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/china-crude-imports-fall-market-power/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/china-crude-imports-fall-market-power/Chinese crude purchases collapsed to 7.79m b/d in May 2026. Hormuz, inventories, refining margins and electrification explain a decline less simple than it looks.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 12:40:00 GMTchinaoilenergymacrogeopoliticshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/oil-the-chinese-inventory-capping-prices/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/oil-the-chinese-inventory-capping-prices/Brent fell back to around $71 in early July 2026, weeks after threatening $100 during the Iran shock. Behind this invisible ceiling, a disciplined buyer: China, which stopped chasing the expensive barrel and drew on its record reserves.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 12:30:00 GMToilchinacommoditiesmacrogeopoliticshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/american-people-shareholders-of-ai-presidential-scam/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/american-people-shareholders-of-ai-presidential-scam/A line dropped aboard Air Force One sends chip stocks up by tens of billions. Why "the people's stake in AI" will not happen in this form, and why the announcement is the only deliverable.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 12:20:00 GMTfinanceaius politicshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/strait-of-hormuz-situation-april-2026/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/strait-of-hormuz-situation-april-2026/Since 28 February 2026, the Strait of Hormuz has been de facto closed. What the official sources (EIA, IEA, CRS) say about the blockade, the oil shock and the shock absorbers, as of 10 April, with an update on the way out of the crisis.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 12:10:00 GMTgeopoliticsenergymacrohttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/iran-hormuz-tolls-usdt-tron-ofac/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/iran-hormuz-tolls-usdt-tron-ofac/How the IRGC gets paid in dollars without Uncle Sam being able to touch a cent: a sovereign toll in USDT on Tron, yuan payments via CIPS, and the whole toolbox of sanctions-evasion 2.0.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 12:00:00 GMTgeopoliticscryptosanctionshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/semiconductors-a-stack-of-constraints/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/semiconductors-a-stack-of-constraints/Record sales, GPUs, EUV lithography, foundry, memory and reshoring: reading semiconductors as a chain of bottlenecks rather than as a mere AI theme.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 09:36:00 GMTmarketssemiconductorsaigeopoliticsvaluationhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/binance-mica-and-the-ecb/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/binance-mica-and-the-ecb/Two weeks before the end of MiCA's transitional regime, the largest crypto platform in the world has no European licence. The press attributes the Greek blockage to an intervention by Christine Lagarde, which neither the ECB nor Athens confirms. A sourced untangling of the facts and the narrative.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 09:32:00 GMTcryptoregulationmicabinanceecblagardestablecoinshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/how-an-ai-agent-pays-the-bill/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/how-an-ai-agent-pays-the-bill/An AI agent now pays on its own, in stablecoins, below the cost of a card transaction. Under this discreet plumbing, the mechanics of the x402 protocol that resurrects the HTTP 402 code, the battle for standards (Coinbase, Google AP2, Visa, Mastercard) that is really a complementary stack, the dependence on USDC, and a still poorly mapped security. A deep dive into the most solid vector of the crypto-AI convergence.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 09:28:00 GMTcryptoaistablecoinspaymentstechhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-intention-economy/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-intention-economy/The advertising model that funded the web is not dying, it is mutating. AI agents, micropayments, stablecoins, MCP, A2A and x402 protocols: a sourced, quantified investigation into the internet's native payment layer, its overstated promises and its regulatory constraints.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 09:24:00 GMTcryptostablecoinsaiagentsadvertisingmacroecbhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/us-inflation-risk-2026/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/us-inflation-risk-2026/An analysis of fresh May-June 2026 data: US CPI at 4.2% YoY (highest since April 2023), core 2.9%; euro-zone HICP 3.2% (highest since September 2023). Impact of the Iran/Israel conflict on energy prices (oil up to ~$120/bbl, US energy +23.5%). ECB June 2026 projections: HICP 3.0% in 2026 (revised +0.4 pp). Scenarios for the second half and macro-financial implications.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 09:20:00 GMTinflationmacroeconomicsfedecbgeopoliticsenergytariffshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/warsh-first-fomc/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/warsh-first-fomc/The Fed should leave rates unchanged this 17 June, for the first FOMC chaired by Kevin Warsh. The real stake is elsewhere: a dot plot caught between a token cut and inflation at 4.2%, a bond market already pricing a hike, and a chair who wants to shrink the balance sheet. The figures against the statement.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 09:16:00 GMTfedwarshfomcinflationratesbondsqthttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-fed-on-the-basis-trade/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-fed-on-the-basis-trade/On 22 June 2026, a Federal Reserve note sized the hedge funds' bet on US debt: an $830 billion basis trade, nearly double its 2020 peak. At the same time, practitioners call it losing steam. Two readings of the same arbitrage, and why the gap matters.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 09:12:00 GMTmacromarketscentral banksregulationliquidityhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/record-treasury-auctions-debt-referendum/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/record-treasury-auctions-debt-referendum/On 9 July 2026, the Treasury placed its 30-year bond at the highest yield since 2007, with a second consecutive tail but solid foreign demand. How to read the auction tape, that permanent referendum on America's ability to finance record deficits while the Fed, foreigners and the basis trade retreat.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 09:08:00 GMTmacrodebtratesus treasurycentral bankshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/semi-liquid-private-credit-gating/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/semi-liquid-private-credit-gating/A factual analysis of record redemptions on private-credit funds open to wealthy investors. A detailed explanation of tender offer funds, the gating mechanism, and the concrete implications for individuals facing the withdrawals seen in 2026 (HLEND, Blackstone, Apollo).Tue, 14 Jul 2026 09:04:00 GMTfinanceprivate-creditalternative-investmentgatingblackrockhlendsemi-liquidhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/q2-2026-bank-earnings-reading-the-risk/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/q2-2026-bank-earnings-reading-the-risk/On Tuesday 14 July, five Wall Street giants open earnings season with profits expected sharply higher. But beating the consensus is the least instructive part. The real signal is in the interest margin, the direction of provisions and above all banks' growing exposure to private credit. A reading grid through the risk prism, anchored to the bank-health guide.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 09:00:00 GMTbanksearningsriskprivate creditfedmarketshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/sintra-2026-ecb-hike-warsh-tokenisation/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/sintra-2026-ecb-hike-warsh-tokenisation/ECB Forum on Central Banking 2026 (29 June to 1 July): the ECB's 11 June rate hike and its projections, Kevin Warsh's first international panel as Fed chair, and the tokenisation session around the Bank of Korea's Project Hangang. Facts and attributed remarks, sourced.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:40:00 GMTecbsintrawarshratesinflationtokenisationcbdcstablecoinshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/ethereum-tradfi-infrastructure/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/ethereum-tradfi-infrastructure/Why Ethereum matters for traditional finance: stablecoins, tokenisation, rollups, roadmap, risks and possible impact on global infrastructure.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:38:00 GMTcryptoethereumtradfitokenisationstablecoinsrwainfrastructurehttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/crypto-and-ai-convergence/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/crypto-and-ai-convergence/The decade's two flagship technologies are converging. Behind the buzzword, a two-faced reality: on one side a plumbing that already works (agents paying in stablecoins, decentralised compute, cryptographic verification), on the other a casino of speculative tokens that collapsed in 2025. A rigorous map, the players, the regulatory framework, and the dividing line between the real and the mirage. With academic references.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:34:00 GMTcryptoaistablecoinsregulationmarketstechhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/private-credit-redemptions-mega-ipos/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/private-credit-redemptions-mega-ipos/Redemption requests at the large private-credit funds reach $12bn in Q2 2026 while fundraising collapses. Mechanics, contagion channel and the effect of mega-IPOs, on primary sources.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:30:00 GMTprivate creditsystemic riskBDCliquidityIPOmacrohttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/strategy-saylor-bitcoin-bet/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/strategy-saylor-bitcoin-bet/Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, holds 847,363 bitcoins paid around $64 billion and has turned into a leveraged bet on a single asset class. How its bitcoin-buying machine works, financed by share issuance and stacked preferreds, and where the real risks are, as in June 2026 its market value fell below the value of its treasury for the first time.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:30:00 GMTcryptomarketsbitcoinhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/hyperliquid-onchain-exchange/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/hyperliquid-onchain-exchange/Hyperliquid has become the leading decentralised derivatives market, with a fully on-chain order book and an unprecedented business model: nearly all its fees buy back its own token. With about $173 billion of monthly volume, ETFs launched by Bitwise and 21Shares, and perpetuals on equities, commodities and indices, it opens doors to traditional finance. Mechanics, model, bridges and risks, put into data.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:26:00 GMTcryptomarketsregulationtechhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-clarity-act-us-crypto-regulation/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-clarity-act-us-crypto-regulation/How a 309-page bill is about to end ten years of turf war between the SEC and the CFTC, and what it changes for the industry.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:22:00 GMTregulationcryptous politicshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/private-credit-record-default-liquidity-closing/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/private-credit-record-default-liquidity-closing/Fitch's broad default rate stays stuck at 6% in May, semi-liquid funds cap redemptions for the second quarter running, and regulators shift from observation to vigilance. The state of US private credit at mid-2026, on primary sources.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:20:00 GMTprivate creditgatinghlendblackstonebdcvaluationfedhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/softbank-margin-loan/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/softbank-margin-loan/SoftBank's talks to raise at least $6 billion via a margin loan backed by its stake in OpenAI have stalled.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:18:00 GMTAIPrivate creditFinancehttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/chinese-real-estate-risk/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/chinese-real-estate-risk/Five years after the tightening of the 'three red lines', Chinese real estate is not collapsing at once: it is sagging, slowly, and diffusing its risk toward developers, local governments and household savings. A quantified, sourced state of play, without catastrophism or denial.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:14:00 GMTchinareal estateriskmacrodebthttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/commercial-real-estate-refinancing-wall/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/commercial-real-estate-refinancing-wall/Close to $1 trillion of commercial real-estate debt matures in 2026, taken out at 3-4% and to be refinanced at 6-7%, against buildings worth 20 to 40% less. The epicentre is the office, and transmission runs through regional banks, over-exposed. Anatomy of a delayed-action risk, between contained and contagious.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:10:00 GMTreal estatebankscreditriskmarketshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/uranium-market-deficit-ai-bottlenecks/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/uranium-market-deficit-ai-bottlenecks/The uranium spot price has crossed $100 a pound, reactor demand is set to double by 2040, and AI's electricity needs are plugging nuclear back in. But the bullish thesis runs into delays, a concentrated supply and an enrichment bottleneck dominated by Russia. A full, sourced analysis, thesis and antithesis.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:10:00 GMTuraniumnuclearaicommoditiesriskhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/gilts-repo-leverage-bank-of-england/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/gilts-repo-leverage-bank-of-england/The Bank of England is preparing limits on hedge-fund leverage in gilt repo. Behind this margin project hides a broader risk: sovereign-debt markets increasingly depend on short-funded arbitrages, at the very moment states have to issue more.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:06:00 GMTmacromarketsliquiditycentral banksregulationUnited Kingdomhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/french-rates-no-frexit/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/french-rates-no-frexit/Why markets are absolutely not pricing a Frexit, despite the social-media noise. A fiscal risk premium versus a monetary-rupture pricing: two mechanisms that everything opposes.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:02:00 GMTbondsmacrofrancehttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/realt-liquidation-token-without-the-deed/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/realt-liquidation-token-without-the-deed/RealT, one of the oldest tokenised real-estate platforms, entered liquidation in early July 2026. The Detroit press investigation shows that its tokens often pointed to houses whose deeds the company did not hold. Autopsy of a bricks-and-mortar RWA, and of the flaw it reveals.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMTcryptorwareal estatetokenisationhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/clarity-act-trump-conflict-of-interest/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/clarity-act-trump-conflict-of-interest/The CLARITY Act, the top priority of the US crypto industry, runs into a paradoxical obstacle: the president's personal interests. The anti-conflict-of-interest provision Democrats demand targets Donald Trump and his family first, whose crypto ventures have generated billions. Without it, no 60 votes in the Senate; with it, the White House threatens to block.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 07:50:00 GMTcryptoregulationus politicsstablecoinshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/us-import-prices-read-the-fine-print/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/us-import-prices-read-the-fine-print/US import prices jump 1.9% in May 2026, +6.7% year on year. The figures are accurate. But behind the headline, fuel does all the work, and the idea that these indices could replace the CPI does not hold. A read of the BLS data.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 07:40:00 GMTmacroinflationfedtariffshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/dollar-yen-intervention-carry-unwind/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/dollar-yen-intervention-carry-unwind/USD/JPY above 161, a more restrictive BoJ, the threat of Japanese intervention: the main risk is less an FX line than a carry-trade and liquidity shock.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 07:30:00 GMTyenbojdollarcarry trademacromarketshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/spacex-ipo-sec-red-carpet/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/spacex-ipo-sec-red-carpet/Accelerated SEC review, a single take-it-or-leave-it price of $135, 30 percent of the offer reserved for retail and a moonshot S-1 promising AI compute satellites in orbit: anatomy of the largest listing ever, its financial risks and the huge short position flagged by Arkham. Good luck to investors, good luck to traders.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 07:20:00 GMTmarketsmacrocryptous politicshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/13flow-institutional-and-insider-signals/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/13flow-institutional-and-insider-signals/13FLOW industrialises the reading of 13F-HR and Form 4 filings on SEC EDGAR and crosses them into an auditable confluence score. Breakdown of the method: institutional weighting, transaction-code hygiene, time decay and insider clusters.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 07:10:00 GMT13flowSEC EDGAR13FForm 4marketsfundamental analysishttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-genius-act-stablecoins-and-the-debt/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-genius-act-stablecoins-and-the-debt/On 18 July 2026, a year after its enactment, the GENIUS Act reaches the deadline for its implementing rules: six federal agencies finalise the stablecoin framework. What is settled (100% reserves, short Treasury bills, ban on paying yield) and what remains a bet (a wave of debt demand, Tether's fate, run risk). A rigorous analysis, from fact to scenario.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 14:06:00 GMTstablecoinscryptoregulationdebtus treasuryhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/private-credit-the-new-shadow-banking/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/private-credit-the-new-shadow-banking/$2 trillion of AUM, still-sexy yields, but the cracks are showing: exploding redemptions at BDCs, PIK doubling, shadow defaults. Private credit enters its adult phase.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 14:02:00 GMTmacroprivate creditfinancehttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/zombie-funds-private-valuations/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/zombie-funds-private-valuations/Between unsellable assets, continuation funds and portfolio-backed loans, private equity faces a silent valuation crisis. Behind stable NAVs hides a liquidity problem that worries investors more and more.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 13:58:00 GMTprivate equityvaluationfinanceprivate marketsprivate creditliquidityhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-dollar-rebound/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-dollar-rebound/The DXY gained 2.3% in June 2026 and touched a thirteen-month high after the Fed's hawkish dot plot. The yen sits beyond 160 despite 11.7 trillion yen of intervention, the ECB and the BoJ raise their rates. Anatomy of a rebound, and of the possible responses.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 13:54:00 GMTmacrodollarfedcentral banksyenrateshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/de-dollarisation-narrative-vs-numbers/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/de-dollarisation-narrative-vs-numbers/The word is everywhere, the thing much less so. The dollar's share in reserves, payments and FX: what the primary data say (IMF, SWIFT, BIS, World Gold Council), and why 'de-dollarisation' badly names what is happening.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 13:50:00 GMTmacrodollarreserveshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/central-banks-gold-de-dollarisation/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/central-banks-gold-de-dollarisation/Since 2022, central banks have been buying gold at a pace not seen since the end of Bretton Woods. In 2025, despite record prices, they still acquired 863 tonnes. Gold has become the world's second reserve asset, ahead of the euro. Behind this move, a strategic diversification and a shield against sanctions, but also a vast zone of undeclared purchases. The figures, their limits, and where the narrative runs away.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 13:46:00 GMTmacrocentral bankshard commoditiesgeopoliticshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/us-inflation-comeback/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/us-inflation-comeback/The US price index jumps to 3.3% year on year in March 2026, driven almost entirely by gasoline. Beneath the surface, core inflation stays contained. What the BLS report says, and why the distinction is the whole point.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 13:42:00 GMTmacroinflationfedhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/warsh-and-the-fed-balance-sheet/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/warsh-and-the-fed-balance-sheet/Warsh wants a smaller, more discreet central bank. But he arrives a few weeks after the committee ended quantitative tightening, and the balance sheet becomes the real ground on which his regime change will play out.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 13:38:00 GMTfedmonetary policymacrous politicshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/us-regional-banks-liquidity-lcr/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/us-regional-banks-liquidity-lcr/In March 2023, three US regional banks vanished in seven weeks, carried off by a deposit run and not by credit losses. Three years later, the system is back in an ample-reserves zone and the regulatory debate has flipped: the Fed no longer seeks to tighten the liquidity ratio, it is thinking about easing it. Timeline, state of liquidity, and the 2026 reform agenda.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 13:34:00 GMTmacrocentral banksliquidityregulationmarketshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-treasury-basis-trade/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-treasury-basis-trade/A single arbitrage ties together the repo market, futures and the stability of US debt: the basis trade. Estimated at around $1 trillion, carried by leverage of 15 to 20 times, it supplies liquidity to the Treasury market in normal times, and amplifies it dangerously under stress. Anatomy of a trade that the Fed, the OFR and the FSB watch closely.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 13:30:00 GMTmacromarketscentral banksregulationhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-return-of-the-term-premium/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-return-of-the-term-premium/US public debt exceeds its 1946 record, the interest bill overtakes the defence budget, and the term premium has turned positive for the first time since 2023. Behind these signals, a fundamental question: who will finance the federal state, and at what price. A rigorous, sourced analysis, from diagnosis to objections.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 13:22:00 GMTmacrodebtratesus treasuryriskhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-yen-carry-trade/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-yen-carry-trade/The 10-year JGB yield touched 2.88% on 9 July 2026, a near-thirty-year high, against the backdrop of a 370-trillion-yen investment plan. Why a surge in Japanese long rates threatens the yen carry, the hidden funding of global markets, and the lesson of the August 2024 precedent.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 13:18:00 GMTyenbojcarry tradejgbratesmacromarketshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-cross-currency-basis/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-cross-currency-basis/Covered interest parity is considered the closest thing to a physical law in international finance. Since 2008, it no longer holds: obtaining dollars through an FX swap costs a premium, the cross-currency basis. This small gap in basis points is the most reliable thermometer of dollar funding stress. How it forms, why arbitrage no longer closes it, and what signal it sends.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 13:14:00 GMTmacrocentral banksliquiditymarketshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/eurodollars-the-offshore-dollar/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/eurodollars-the-offshore-dollar/Outside the United States circulates a gigantic dollar system, largely invisible. Dollar credit to non-bank borrowers outside the US reaches $14.3 trillion, and FX swaps hide off-balance-sheet dollar debt estimated at more than $25 trillion for non-banks alone. How the eurodollar works, why the Fed is its lender of last resort in the dark, and the part the BIS manages to measure.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 13:10:00 GMTmacrocentral banksliquiditymarketshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-silent-contagion-of-private-credit/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-silent-contagion-of-private-credit/A map of the contagion channels of private credit: bank bridges, PE-owned life insurers, retail BDCs, crypto porosity via yield-bearing stablecoins, and the Japanese bond channel. Three scenarios over 12 to 24 months.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 13:04:00 GMTfinanceprivate creditmacrocryptohttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/private-credit-one-asset-two-prices/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/private-credit-one-asset-two-prices/Listed BDCs trade below their NAV while non-traded funds redeem at par: two prices for a near-identical credit risk. Valuation mechanics, mark dispersion and paths to convergence, on primary sources.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 13:00:00 GMTprivate creditvaluationBDCNAVprice discoverysystemic riskhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/repo-the-liquidity-factory/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/repo-the-liquidity-factory/The repo market turns collateral into cash overnight, and moves trillions of dollars a day. It is the invisible plumbing that funds leveraged positions in US debt. How it manufactures liquidity, why it seizes up on balance-sheet dates, and the effect of the end of the Fed's tightening since late 2025.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 12:56:00 GMTmacrocentral banksliquiditymarketshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/collateral-and-rehypothecation/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/collateral-and-rehypothecation/A single Treasury bond can back several loans at once. This reuse of collateral, rehypothecation, is the common mechanism that runs repo, the basis trade, shadow banking and the offshore dollar. Its intensity is measured by collateral velocity. How a security is duplicated, why this lubrication seized up after 2008, and where the risk of chains freezing hides.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 12:52:00 GMTmacromarketsliquiditycentral bankshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/shadow-banking-nonbank-intermediation/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/shadow-banking-nonbank-intermediation/The non-bank financial system now weighs $256.8 trillion, or 51 percent of global financial assets, and is growing twice as fast as banks. Hedge funds, money market funds, private credit, securitisation vehicles: where credit has migrated out of the banks, and where the new fragilities sit, per FSB, ECB and BIS data.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 12:48:00 GMTmacroprivate creditregulationmarketshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-migration-of-credit-risk/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-migration-of-credit-risk/Since 2008, regulation has made banks more solid. But credit risk has not shrunk, it has moved: non-bank finance now exceeds half of global financial assets, around $250 trillion. A synthesis of that shift, from the hiding places of risk to the re-coupling through banks, and of the debate that divides regulators themselves: a safer system, or merely a less legible one?Mon, 13 Jul 2026 12:44:00 GMTriskcreditbanksprivate creditshadow bankingregulationhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/ai-and-productivity/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/ai-and-productivity/Controlled studies show real and sometimes spectacular productivity gains on certain tasks. Yet these gains stay invisible in the macro statistics and in most corporate deployments. An objective review of the evidence, from the isolated task to the whole economy, and of the employment effects still to be untangled.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 12:36:00 GMTaiproductivitylabourmacroriskhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-bubble-within-the-bubble/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-bubble-within-the-bubble/A number spotted by the FT captures the current unease: adjusted for an earnings level that is itself abnormally high, the S&P 500 CAPE would reach an unprecedented extreme. The bubble thesis, a methodical antithesis, and the role of AI's promises in the equation. A quantified, sourced analysis.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 12:32:00 GMTmarketsaivaluationsriskmacrohttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/ai-boom-bis-financial-fragility/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/ai-boom-bis-financial-fragility/The Bank for International Settlements now files AI investment among the points of financial fragility. Starting from a Finneko thread relaying its chart 13, we go back to the primary report and test the outlook against the literature on technology diffusion and investment bubbles. Circular financing, the shift to debt, the demand bottleneck, and lessons from past booms.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 12:28:00 GMTmacroprivate credittechcentral bankshttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/ai-circular-financing/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/ai-circular-financing/Nvidia invests in OpenAI, which commits to spending hundreds of billions at Oracle, Microsoft or CoreWeave, which buy Nvidia chips. The same dollar loops among a handful of players and comes back out as revenue. With close to $1.4 trillion of compute commitments against roughly $13 billion of revenue, OpenAI crystallises the debate. A quantified map of the loop, and the counter-argument.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 12:24:00 GMTmarketsvaluationstechregulationhttps://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-debt-behind-ai/https://l0g.fr/en/analysis/the-debt-behind-ai/The AI debate has fixated on stock valuations and circular revenue. The deeper question is how the build-out gets paid for. In 2026 hyperscaler capex absorbs almost all of their operating cash flow, and the balance is tipping into debt. Morgan Stanley expects close to $570 billion of AI-related issuance for the year; AI debt was already the single largest slice of the investment-grade market at the end of 2025. The plumbing of a debt-financed boom: off-balance-sheet Meta-Blue Owl vehicles, a bond market that is starting to choke, private credit and insurers at the end of the chain, and the counter-argument.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 12:20:00 GMTaidebtprivate creditbondsriskdata centersshadow banking