// definition
Treasury auction
How the US issues its debt
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Short definition
The auction through which the US Treasury issues its debt. Single-price format: bidders submit yields and every winner pays the yield that clears the sale. Reading one rests on the bid-to-cover, the tail and the share taken by primary dealers.
risk atlas
Knowledge map
Intuition
An auction reveals the marginal demand for the debt issued today, not the theoretical demand for Treasuries.
Formula
visible demand = bid-to-cover + tail + primary dealer shareWhy it matters now
The refunding calendar becomes a risk signal when volumes to issue rise and the marginal buyer demands more yield.
Related analyses
- The return of the term premiumDecomposing the long rate and the US debt regime.
Related guides
- Reading the Treasuries marketCurve, auctions, holders and the term premium.
Related datasets
- risk.jsonPublic snapshot of the risk signals.
- debt-risk.jsonDebt Risk Radar snapshot with provenance.
- risk-diff.json1, 7 and 30-day diff of signals, sources and models.
- signals/history.jsonPoint-in-time history of the signals.
Signals using it
- MethodologyDebt, interest burden, current stress and structural vulnerability.
- Risk DiffRecent change in risk and source freshness.
- Black Box RecorderHashed frames to replay a point-in-time state.
Primary sources
- Federal Reserve & FREDRates, the Fed balance sheet, FRED series and the New York Fed ACM model.
- U.S. Treasury Fiscal DataDebt, Treasury cash, DTS and auctions.
- U.S. Treasury TICCross-border holdings and flows of Treasuries.
- Congress.gov, GovInfo & CBOBudget projections, texts and estimates.
- Bank for International SettlementsGlobal debt, banks and market fragilities.