{
  "schema": "https://l0g.fr/schemas/debt-risk-snapshot.json",
  "version": "2",
  "generated": "2026-10-16T22:58:49.252904Z",
  "retrievedAt": "2026-10-16T22:59:31.141Z",
  "status": "ok",
  "signal": {
    "key": "debt",
    "value": 56,
    "scale": 100,
    "level": "Élevé",
    "tone": "elevated",
    "sourceStatus": "ok",
    "qualityStatus": "official-delayed",
    "fallbackUsed": false,
    "fallbackLayer": null,
    "fallbackReason": null,
    "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-16T22:58:49.252Z",
    "sourcePublishedAt": "2026-10-16T22:58:49.252Z",
    "retrievedAt": "2026-10-16T22:59:31.141Z",
    "lastAttemptAt": "2026-10-16T22:59:31.141Z",
    "lastSuccessAt": "2026-10-16T22:59:31.141Z",
    "staleAfter": "PT6H",
    "ageSeconds": 42,
    "timelinessStatus": "fresh",
    "sourceSnapshotUrl": "https://debt.l0g.fr/latest.json",
    "warnings": [
      "Publication trimestrielle FRED différée, dernière observation officielle confirmée ; période d’origine conservée."
    ],
    "producerRepository": "https://github.com/bluetouff/debt-risk-radar",
    "producerRevision": "23147bbb49b569dca8ce08843e613e954d2f1d5a",
    "producerRevisionStatus": "reported",
    "rawValue": 56.05633188612944,
    "methodologyId": "us-debt-institutional",
    "methodologyVersion": "2.0",
    "validUntil": "2026-10-16T23:28:49.252904Z",
    "freshnessPolicyVersion": "3",
    "observedAt": "2026-10-16T00:00:00.000Z",
    "observedAtMethod": "latest-component-observation",
    "observationWindow": {
      "oldest": "2025-12-31T00:00:00.000Z",
      "latest": "2026-10-16T00:00:00.000Z"
    },
    "observationTimePrecision": "date",
    "componentDates": {
      "World Bank": "2025-12-31",
      "BIS Data Portal": "2026-03-31",
      "FRED/BEA": "2026-04-01",
      "FRED/Fed Z.1": "2026-04-01",
      "FRED/Chicago Fed": "2026-10-09",
      "FRED/St. Louis Fed": "2026-10-09",
      "US Treasury Fiscal Data": "2026-10-14",
      "FRED": "2026-10-15",
      "FRED/ICE BofA": "2026-10-15",
      "FRED/Treasury": "2026-10-15",
      "FRED/Fed": "2026-10-16"
    },
    "observationStatus": "known",
    "coverageStatus": "complete",
    "missing": [],
    "backtestUsable": true,
    "cacheUsed": false
  },
  "provenance": {
    "label": "Debt Risk Radar",
    "source": "https://debt.l0g.fr/",
    "latestJsonUrl": "https://debt.l0g.fr/latest.json",
    "methodology": "https://l0g.fr/methodologie/debt-risk-radar/",
    "calculator": "https://github.com/bluetouff/debt-risk-radar",
    "calculatorRevision": "23147bbb49b569dca8ce08843e613e954d2f1d5a",
    "methodologyId": "us-debt-institutional",
    "methodologyVersion": "2.0",
    "validUntil": "2026-10-16T23:28:49.252904Z",
    "generatedAt": "2026-10-16T22:58:49.252904Z",
    "observedAt": "2026-10-16T00:00:00.000Z",
    "retrievedAt": "2026-10-16T22:59:31.141Z",
    "sourceStatus": "ok",
    "qualityStatus": "official-delayed",
    "fallbackUsed": false,
    "lastAttemptAt": "2026-10-16T22:59:31.141Z",
    "lastSuccessAt": "2026-10-16T22:59:31.141Z",
    "staleAfter": "PT6H",
    "schemaVersion": "1.2",
    "scoreRaw": 56.05633188612944,
    "scoreRounded": 56,
    "status": "Elevated",
    "coverage": 1,
    "coverageNote": "Weighted coverage of eligible expected signals. Current stress is unavailable unless coverage is complete; no neutral imputation.",
    "issues": [],
    "thresholds": {
      "stress": 80,
      "watch": 65
    },
    "refresh": {
      "auto_refresh_seconds": 900,
      "source_max_cache_age_seconds": {
        "cbo_pinned": 2592000,
        "institutional": 604800,
        "market": 172800
      },
      "source_ttl_seconds": {
        "institutional": 86400,
        "market": 21600
      }
    },
    "scope": {
      "country": "USA",
      "focus": "US sovereign debt, fiscal projections, private credit, liquidity and market stress.",
      "market_data": "US yields and credit spreads via FRED. No ETF price collection or substitution. A server-side FRED key is required."
    },
    "buckets": [
      {
        "key": "cbo_projection",
        "label": "CBO projections",
        "score": 85.89828165107457,
        "status": "Stress",
        "weight": 0.1,
        "metrics": 4
      },
      {
        "key": "treasury_daily",
        "label": "Treasury daily debt",
        "score": 70.81355882612739,
        "status": "Watch",
        "weight": 0.1,
        "metrics": 3
      },
      {
        "key": "world_bank",
        "label": "Global comparables",
        "score": 65.44336954975662,
        "status": "Watch",
        "weight": 0.04,
        "metrics": 4
      },
      {
        "key": "fiscal",
        "label": "Fiscal solvency",
        "score": 64.6505400075308,
        "status": "Elevated",
        "weight": 0.22,
        "metrics": 4
      },
      {
        "key": "rates_market",
        "label": "Rates and market stress",
        "score": 58.42943322520393,
        "status": "Elevated",
        "weight": 0.18,
        "metrics": 7
      },
      {
        "key": "private_leverage",
        "label": "Private leverage",
        "score": 52.097679294692554,
        "status": "Elevated",
        "weight": 0.12,
        "metrics": 4
      },
      {
        "key": "liquidity",
        "label": "Liquidity plumbing",
        "score": 48.61542076585904,
        "status": "Calm",
        "weight": 0.1,
        "metrics": 4
      },
      {
        "key": "global_credit",
        "label": "BIS global credit",
        "score": 26.556743833258206,
        "status": "Calm",
        "weight": 0.1,
        "metrics": 5
      }
    ],
    "sources": [
      {
        "source": "BIS Data Portal",
        "latestDate": "2026-03-31",
        "metrics": 5,
        "maxRisk": 54.70495628582527
      },
      {
        "source": "CBO Open Data",
        "latestDate": null,
        "metrics": 4,
        "maxRisk": 90.74685714285714
      },
      {
        "source": "FRED",
        "latestDate": "2026-10-15",
        "metrics": 4,
        "maxRisk": 76.56763372822563
      },
      {
        "source": "FRED/BEA",
        "latestDate": "2026-04-01",
        "metrics": 1,
        "maxRisk": 68.87268316769071
      },
      {
        "source": "FRED/Chicago Fed",
        "latestDate": "2026-10-09",
        "metrics": 1,
        "maxRisk": 38.05487249625542
      },
      {
        "source": "FRED/Fed",
        "latestDate": "2026-10-16",
        "metrics": 5,
        "maxRisk": 65.50070379571459
      },
      {
        "source": "FRED/Fed Z.1",
        "latestDate": "2026-04-01",
        "metrics": 1,
        "maxRisk": 24.70236316670368
      },
      {
        "source": "FRED/ICE BofA",
        "latestDate": "2026-10-15",
        "metrics": 2,
        "maxRisk": 55.4947805101127
      },
      {
        "source": "FRED/St. Louis Fed",
        "latestDate": "2026-10-09",
        "metrics": 1,
        "maxRisk": 39.37472455971614
      },
      {
        "source": "FRED/Treasury",
        "latestDate": "2026-10-15",
        "metrics": 4,
        "maxRisk": 73.93721850299951
      },
      {
        "source": "US Treasury Fiscal Data",
        "latestDate": "2026-10-14",
        "metrics": 3,
        "maxRisk": 77.39191439147751
      },
      {
        "source": "World Bank",
        "latestDate": "2025-12-31",
        "metrics": 4,
        "maxRisk": 82.22274169433395
      }
    ],
    "topSignals": [
      {
        "family": "Global comparables",
        "name": "Interest payments / revenue",
        "source": "World Bank",
        "date": "2024-12-31",
        "current": 20.2909241993276,
        "unit": "% revenue",
        "riskScore": 82.22274169433395,
        "signedZ": 2.148182779622263,
        "rationale": "Annual cross-country comparable indicator."
      },
      {
        "family": "Treasury daily debt",
        "name": "Total public debt outstanding",
        "source": "US Treasury Fiscal Data",
        "date": "2026-10-14",
        "current": 40329.22982754102,
        "unit": "USD bn",
        "riskScore": 77.39191439147751,
        "signedZ": 1.8261276260985004,
        "rationale": "Daily Treasury debt stock."
      },
      {
        "family": "Fiscal solvency",
        "name": "Federal debt held by the public / GDP",
        "source": "FRED",
        "date": "2026-01-01",
        "current": 98.7105,
        "unit": "% GDP",
        "riskScore": 76.56763372822563,
        "signedZ": 1.7711755818817083,
        "rationale": "Market-facing federal debt burden."
      },
      {
        "family": "Rates and market stress",
        "name": "10Y Treasury yield",
        "source": "FRED/Treasury",
        "date": "2026-10-14",
        "current": 5.19,
        "unit": "%",
        "riskScore": 73.93721850299951,
        "signedZ": 1.5958145668666348,
        "rationale": "Benchmark long-rate for sovereign funding cost."
      },
      {
        "family": "Rates and market stress",
        "name": "30Y Treasury yield",
        "source": "FRED/Treasury",
        "date": "2026-10-14",
        "current": 5.52,
        "unit": "%",
        "riskScore": 73.29810460368896,
        "signedZ": 1.5532069735792633,
        "rationale": "Long-duration credibility and inflation compensation signal."
      },
      {
        "family": "Treasury daily debt",
        "name": "Debt held by the public share",
        "source": "US Treasury Fiscal Data",
        "date": "2026-10-14",
        "current": 80.54632374243496,
        "unit": "%",
        "riskScore": 72.39627584193155,
        "signedZ": 1.49308505612877,
        "rationale": "Market-facing share of Treasury debt."
      },
      {
        "family": "Fiscal solvency",
        "name": "Federal debt, total public debt / GDP",
        "source": "FRED",
        "date": "2026-01-01",
        "current": 122.59387,
        "unit": "% GDP",
        "riskScore": 70.46688535147425,
        "signedZ": 1.3644590234316158,
        "rationale": "Debt stock relative to economic base."
      },
      {
        "family": "Fiscal solvency",
        "name": "Federal government interest payments",
        "source": "FRED/BEA",
        "date": "2026-04-01",
        "current": 1279.734,
        "unit": "USD bn SAAR",
        "riskScore": 68.87268316769071,
        "signedZ": 1.2581788778460474,
        "rationale": "Interest expense is the fiscal transmission channel."
      },
      {
        "family": "Liquidity plumbing",
        "name": "Overnight reverse repo facility",
        "source": "FRED/Fed",
        "date": "2026-10-16",
        "current": 0.1,
        "unit": "USD bn",
        "riskScore": 65.50070379571459,
        "signedZ": 1.033380253047639,
        "rationale": "Shrinking RRP reduces an important liquidity buffer."
      },
      {
        "family": "Private leverage",
        "name": "Business loan delinquency rate",
        "source": "FRED/Fed",
        "date": "2026-04-01",
        "current": 1.27,
        "unit": "%",
        "riskScore": 65.05468435013711,
        "signedZ": 1.0036456233424738,
        "rationale": "Business loan stress can migrate into banks and employment."
      }
    ],
    "calculation": "Value is Math.round(score.current_stress) from Debt Risk Radar latest.json. Method 2.0 requires all 31 institutional current signals; CBO and ETF prices are excluded; no neutral imputation. Earlier snapshots retain their original methodology."
  }
}