{
  "schema": "https://l0g.fr/schemas/debt-risk-snapshot.json",
  "version": "1",
  "generated": "2026-07-01T11:02:19Z",
  "retrievedAt": "2026-07-01T11:14:23.347Z",
  "signal": {
    "key": "debt",
    "value": 54,
    "scale": 100,
    "level": "Élevé",
    "tone": "elevated"
  },
  "provenance": {
    "label": "Debt Risk Radar",
    "source": "https://debt.l0g.fr/",
    "latestJsonUrl": "https://debt.l0g.fr/latest.json",
    "methodology": "https://l0g.fr/methodologie/debt-risk-radar/",
    "calculator": "https://github.com/bluetouff/debt-risk-radar",
    "calculatorRevision": null,
    "generatedAt": "2026-07-01T11:02:19Z",
    "retrievedAt": "2026-07-01T11:14:23.347Z",
    "schemaVersion": "1.0",
    "scoreRaw": 53.977214461235675,
    "scoreRounded": 54,
    "status": "Elevated",
    "coverage": null,
    "coverageNote": null,
    "issues": [],
    "thresholds": {
      "stress": 80,
      "watch": 65
    },
    "refresh": {
      "auto_refresh_seconds": 900,
      "source_ttl_seconds": {
        "institutional": 86400,
        "market": 21600
      }
    },
    "scope": {
      "country": "USA",
      "focus": "US sovereign debt, fiscal projections, private credit, liquidity and market stress.",
      "market_data": "FRED and Massive Market Data are used when server-side keys are configured."
    },
    "buckets": [
      {
        "key": "cbo_projection",
        "label": "CBO projections",
        "score": 85.89828165107457,
        "status": "Stress",
        "weight": 0.1,
        "metrics": 4
      },
      {
        "key": "treasury_daily",
        "label": "Treasury daily debt",
        "score": 65.92824972675564,
        "status": "Watch",
        "weight": 0.1,
        "metrics": 3
      },
      {
        "key": "world_bank",
        "label": "Global comparables",
        "score": 65.43652243024123,
        "status": "Watch",
        "weight": 0.04,
        "metrics": 4
      },
      {
        "key": "fiscal",
        "label": "Fiscal solvency",
        "score": 64.48029914517166,
        "status": "Elevated",
        "weight": 0.22,
        "metrics": 4
      },
      {
        "key": "private_leverage",
        "label": "Private leverage",
        "score": 57.09890950322818,
        "status": "Elevated",
        "weight": 0.12,
        "metrics": 4
      },
      {
        "key": "market_prices",
        "label": "Massive market prices",
        "score": 51.5568751809097,
        "status": "Elevated",
        "weight": 0.04,
        "metrics": 9
      },
      {
        "key": "rates_market",
        "label": "Rates and market stress",
        "score": 48.30919319995018,
        "status": "Calm",
        "weight": 0.18,
        "metrics": 7
      },
      {
        "key": "liquidity",
        "label": "Liquidity plumbing",
        "score": 46.664649694721156,
        "status": "Calm",
        "weight": 0.1,
        "metrics": 4
      },
      {
        "key": "global_credit",
        "label": "BIS global credit",
        "score": 29.072774402022088,
        "status": "Calm",
        "weight": 0.1,
        "metrics": 3
      }
    ],
    "sources": [
      {
        "source": "Massive Market Data",
        "latestDate": "2026-06-30",
        "metrics": 9,
        "maxRisk": 66.34654288426623
      },
      {
        "source": "FRED/Fed",
        "latestDate": "2026-06-30",
        "metrics": 5,
        "maxRisk": 74.24371187943021
      },
      {
        "source": "FRED/Treasury",
        "latestDate": "2026-06-30",
        "metrics": 4,
        "maxRisk": 63.9363552785384
      },
      {
        "source": "FRED",
        "latestDate": "2026-06-30",
        "metrics": 4,
        "maxRisk": 76.56763372822563
      },
      {
        "source": "CBO Open Data",
        "latestDate": "2056-09-30",
        "metrics": 4,
        "maxRisk": 90.74685714285714
      },
      {
        "source": "World Bank",
        "latestDate": "2025-12-31",
        "metrics": 4,
        "maxRisk": 82.22274169433395
      },
      {
        "source": "US Treasury Fiscal Data",
        "latestDate": "2026-06-29",
        "metrics": 3,
        "maxRisk": 76.22248511141359
      },
      {
        "source": "BIS Data Portal",
        "latestDate": "2025-12-31",
        "metrics": 3,
        "maxRisk": 55.23113917922602
      },
      {
        "source": "FRED/ICE BofA",
        "latestDate": "2026-06-29",
        "metrics": 2,
        "maxRisk": 36.565506988294736
      },
      {
        "source": "FRED/Chicago Fed",
        "latestDate": "2026-06-19",
        "metrics": 1,
        "maxRisk": 38.14272278394138
      },
      {
        "source": "FRED/BEA",
        "latestDate": "2026-01-01",
        "metrics": 1,
        "maxRisk": 68.08957520083872
      },
      {
        "source": "FRED/St. Louis Fed",
        "latestDate": "2026-06-19",
        "metrics": 1,
        "maxRisk": 28.635515753595467
      },
      {
        "source": "FRED/Fed Z.1",
        "latestDate": "2026-01-01",
        "metrics": 1,
        "maxRisk": 32.15136673881235
      }
    ],
    "topSignals": [
      {
        "family": "Global comparables",
        "name": "Interest payments / revenue",
        "source": "World Bank",
        "date": "2024-12-31",
        "current": 20.2909241993276,
        "unit": "% revenue",
        "riskScore": 82.22274169433395,
        "signedZ": 2.148182779622263,
        "rationale": "Annual cross-country comparable indicator."
      },
      {
        "family": "Fiscal solvency",
        "name": "Federal debt held by the public / GDP",
        "source": "FRED",
        "date": "2026-01-01",
        "current": 98.7105,
        "unit": "% GDP",
        "riskScore": 76.56763372822563,
        "signedZ": 1.7711755818817083,
        "rationale": "Market-facing federal debt burden."
      },
      {
        "family": "Treasury daily debt",
        "name": "Total public debt outstanding",
        "source": "US Treasury Fiscal Data",
        "date": "2026-06-29",
        "current": 39345.34078796972,
        "unit": "USD bn",
        "riskScore": 76.22248511141359,
        "signedZ": 1.7481656740942393,
        "rationale": "Daily Treasury debt stock."
      },
      {
        "family": "Private leverage",
        "name": "Business loan delinquency rate",
        "source": "FRED/Fed",
        "date": "2026-01-01",
        "current": 1.34,
        "unit": "%",
        "riskScore": 74.24371187943021,
        "signedZ": 1.6162474586286804,
        "rationale": "Business loan stress can migrate into banks and employment."
      },
      {
        "family": "Treasury daily debt",
        "name": "Debt held by the public share",
        "source": "US Treasury Fiscal Data",
        "date": "2026-06-29",
        "current": 80.36867688033031,
        "unit": "%",
        "riskScore": 72.59900336513493,
        "signedZ": 1.5066002243423284,
        "rationale": "Market-facing share of Treasury debt."
      },
      {
        "family": "Fiscal solvency",
        "name": "Federal debt, total public debt / GDP",
        "source": "FRED",
        "date": "2026-01-01",
        "current": 122.59387,
        "unit": "% GDP",
        "riskScore": 70.46688535147425,
        "signedZ": 1.3644590234316158,
        "rationale": "Debt stock relative to economic base."
      },
      {
        "family": "Fiscal solvency",
        "name": "Federal government interest payments",
        "source": "FRED/BEA",
        "date": "2026-01-01",
        "current": 1218.938,
        "unit": "USD bn SAAR",
        "riskScore": 68.08957520083872,
        "signedZ": 1.2059716800559146,
        "rationale": "Interest expense is the fiscal transmission channel."
      },
      {
        "family": "Liquidity plumbing",
        "name": "Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks",
        "source": "FRED/Fed",
        "date": "2026-06-24",
        "current": 2951416,
        "unit": "USD mn",
        "riskScore": 67.71050726180125,
        "signedZ": 1.1807004841200834,
        "rationale": "Falling reserves can tighten money-market plumbing."
      },
      {
        "family": "Liquidity plumbing",
        "name": "Overnight reverse repo facility",
        "source": "FRED/Fed",
        "date": "2026-06-30",
        "current": 26.9,
        "unit": "USD bn",
        "riskScore": 66.69674401639482,
        "signedZ": 1.1131162677596544,
        "rationale": "Shrinking RRP reduces an important liquidity buffer."
      },
      {
        "family": "Massive market prices",
        "name": "iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF",
        "source": "Massive Market Data",
        "date": "2026-06-30",
        "current": 82.11,
        "unit": "USD",
        "riskScore": 66.34654288426623,
        "signedZ": 1.089769525617748,
        "rationale": "Short Treasury proxy used in duration stress ratios. 30d return +0.06% if available."
      }
    ],
    "calculation": "current_stress = overall_score(bucket_scores(metrics), exclude=cbo_projection, expected=current_stress_buckets, neutral_missing=50); value is Math.round(score.current_stress) from Debt Risk Radar latest.json."
  }
}