// definition
Private credit
Direct lending by non-bank managers
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Short definition
Loans extended directly by non-bank managers to companies, with no listing and no active secondary market. An illiquid, lightly regulated, model-marked market of about $1.3 trillion in the United States.
risk atlas
Knowledge map
Intuition
Private credit replaces a continuous market price with model marks, redemption windows and often delayed information.
Formula
visible risk ≈ observed defaults + NAV discount + capped redemptions + fund leverageWhy it matters now
Rising defaults, capped semi-liquid redemptions and the gap between listed BDCs and private funds make liquidity as important as the advertised yield.
Related analyses
- Private credit: one asset, two pricesPrice discovery, listed BDCs and unlisted funds.
- Private credit, default and gatingDefaults, capped redemptions and regulator vigilance.
- The silent contagion of private creditBridges between banks, insurers, BDCs, crypto and stablecoins.
- Semi-liquid funds and gatingThe mechanics of redemption windows and retail risk.
- Zombie funds and private valuationsPrivate marks, hard exits and the illusion of stability.
Related guides
- Analysing private creditValuation, liquidity, leverage, covenants and breaking points.
- How to read a 10-KCredit risk, debt, maturities and risk factors.
- Analysing 13F filingsPublic exposures of institutional managers.
Related datasets
- debt-risk.jsonDebt Risk Radar snapshot with provenance.
- risk-diff.json1, 7 and 30-day diff of signals, sources and models.
- evidence-graph.jsonClaims, evidence and their sources as a graph.
- catalog.jsonMachine-readable catalogue of l0g surfaces.
Signals using it
- MethodologyDebt, interest burden, current stress and structural vulnerability.
- Risk DiffRecent change in risk and source freshness.
- Black Box RecorderHashed frames to replay a point-in-time state.
Primary sources
- SEC EDGARBDC filings, 10-K, 10-Q, 8-K and institutional disclosures.
- Financial Stability Board & OFRNon-bank intermediation, financial stability and monitors.
- International Monetary FundGlobal Financial Stability Report and funding stress.
- Bank for International SettlementsGlobal credit, NBFI and market vulnerabilities.