// definition
Chokepoint
Strategic maritime passage
Short definition
A maritime passage that concentrates shipping routes, such as Hormuz, Malacca, Suez, Panama or Bab el-Mandeb. Its importance depends on the goods carried and the alternative routes available. Disruption exposes the trade using the passage; actual losses also depend on duration, usable inventories and the ability to replace inputs or suppliers. One cargo can cross several chokepoints in succession.
risk atlas
Knowledge map
Intuition
Exposure to a passage is not a measure of lost output. A detour can keep supplies moving while requiring more vessel time and financing.
Why it matters now
In BIS Bulletin 138, published on 15 October 2026, the authors explain that inventories and substitution can cushion output while raising input costs. The protection they provide depends on how long disruption lasts and which alternatives are actually available.
Related analyses
- Hormuz: five ships and the crop calendarProposed fertilizer passage, cargo composition and the crop calendar.
- Shipping chokepoints: the cost of buying timeUsable inventories, diversions and financing the wait; observations kept distinct from illustrative scenarios.
- Hormuz reopensNormalisation, price scenarios and geopolitical premia.
- The Hormuz crisis in AsiaEnergy bill, LNG and Asian exposure.
- Supply chains and HormuzFreight, delays and energy costs passed into goods.
Related guides
- Reading the oil marketPrices, curve, inventories, OPEC and physical data.
Related datasets
- risk.jsonPublic snapshot of the risk signals.
- signals/history.jsonPoint-in-time history of the signals.
- risk-diff.json1, 7 and 30-day diff of signals, sources and models.
- evidence-graph.jsonClaims, evidence and their sources as a graph.
Signals using it
- Energy MonitorMethodology of the energy stress signal.
- Risk DiffRecent change in risk and source freshness.
Primary sources
- BIS Bulletin 13815 October 2026: inventories, substitution and disruption costs. The authors’ analysis is distinct from a forecast for the current episode.
- Nature Communications, maritime dependencies24 November 2025: route networks, overlapping exposure and modelled risks. Exposure is not an observed loss.
- EIA, October 2026 STEO6 October 2026: temporary interruption of the East-West pipeline and bypass-route dependencies. The page is updated for each edition.