// definition
Chokepoint
Strategic maritime passage
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Short definition
A narrow maritime passage through which a major share of a global flow transits: Hormuz (oil, LNG), Malacca, Suez, Panama, Bab el-Mandeb. Its concentration creates great efficiency in normal times and acute vulnerability when blocked, for lack of adequate alternatives.
risk atlas
Knowledge map
Intuition
A chokepoint concentrates a global flow in a passage that is hard to replace.
Formula
fragility = share of world flow × limited bypass capacityWhy it matters now
Hormuz showed that a local shock can become inflation, freight, marine insurance and political risk within days.
Related analyses
- Hormuz reopensNormalisation, price scenarios and geopolitical premia.
- The Hormuz crisis in AsiaEnergy bill, LNG and Asian exposure.
- Supply chains and HormuzFreight, delays and energy costs passed into goods.
Related guides
- Reading the oil marketPrices, curve, inventories, OPEC and physical data.
Related datasets
- risk.jsonPublic snapshot of the risk signals.
- signals/history.jsonPoint-in-time history of the signals.
- risk-diff.json1, 7 and 30-day diff of signals, sources and models.
- evidence-graph.jsonClaims, evidence and their sources as a graph.
Signals using it
- Energy MonitorMethodology of the energy stress signal.
- Risk DiffRecent change in risk and source freshness.
Primary sources
- U.S. Energy Information AdministrationOil, gas, inventories, production and the Short-Term Energy Outlook.
- Commodity Futures Trading CommissionFutures positioning through the Commitments of Traders.
- World Bank Open Data & OECD DataMacro comparables and commodity prices.