l0grisk intelligence · english

$ ls /en/analysis | page 9

English analysis

Page 9 of 9. Selected l0g analysis pieces translated from the French corpus, newest first.Back to the latest →

8 min readmacroThe Treasury basis trade: the leveraged arbitrage at the heart of US debtA single arbitrage ties together the repo market, futures and the stability of US debt: the basis trade. Estimated at around $1 trillion, carried by leverage of 15 to 20 times, it supplies liquidity to the Treasury market in normal times, and amplifies it dangerously under stress. Anatomy of a trade that the Fed, the OFR and the FSB watch closely.9 min readmacroUS debt: the awakening of the term premiumUS public debt exceeds its 1946 record, the interest bill overtakes the defence budget, and the term premium has turned positive for the first time since 2023. Behind these signals, a fundamental question: who will finance the federal state, and at what price. A rigorous, sourced analysis, from diagnosis to objections.12 min readyenThe yen carry trade: the fuse is now in Japanese bondsThe 10-year JGB yield touched 2.88% on 9 July 2026, a near-thirty-year high, against the backdrop of a 370-trillion-yen investment plan. Why a surge in Japanese long rates threatens the yen carry, the hidden funding of global markets, and the lesson of the August 2024 precedent.6 min readmacroThe cross-currency basis: the hidden price of the dollar, when the law of international finance breaksCovered interest parity is considered the closest thing to a physical law in international finance. Since 2008, it no longer holds: obtaining dollars through an FX swap costs a premium, the cross-currency basis. This small gap in basis points is the most reliable thermometer of dollar funding stress. How it forms, why arbitrage no longer closes it, and what signal it sends.6 min readmacroEurodollars: the offshore dollar, the debt no one sees in fullOutside the United States circulates a gigantic dollar system, largely invisible. Dollar credit to non-bank borrowers outside the US reaches $14.3 trillion, and FX swaps hide off-balance-sheet dollar debt estimated at more than $25 trillion for non-banks alone. How the eurodollar works, why the Fed is its lender of last resort in the dark, and the part the BIS manages to measure.26 min readfinanceThe silent contagion: how private credit weaves an invisible web across banks, insurers, equities, crypto and stablecoinsA map of the contagion channels of private credit: bank bridges, PE-owned life insurers, retail BDCs, crypto porosity via yield-bearing stablecoins, and the Japanese bond channel. Three scenarios over 12 to 24 months.8 min readprivate creditPrivate credit: one asset, two pricesListed BDCs trade below their NAV while non-traded funds redeem at par: two prices for a near-identical credit risk. Valuation mechanics, mark dispersion and paths to convergence, on primary sources.9 min readmacroRepo and collateral: where liquidity is made, and where it breaksThe repo market turns collateral into cash overnight, and moves trillions of dollars a day. It is the invisible plumbing that funds leveraged positions in US debt. How it manufactures liquidity, why it seizes up on balance-sheet dates, and the effect of the end of the Fed's tightening since late 2025.6 min readmacroCollateral and rehypothecation: one security, several owners, and the keystone of the whole plumbingA single Treasury bond can back several loans at once. This reuse of collateral, rehypothecation, is the common mechanism that runs repo, the basis trade, shadow banking and the offshore dollar. Its intensity is measured by collateral velocity. How a security is duplicated, why this lubrication seized up after 2008, and where the risk of chains freezing hides.6 min readmacroShadow banking: non-bank intermediation has overtaken the banksThe non-bank financial system now weighs $256.8 trillion, or 51 percent of global financial assets, and is growing twice as fast as banks. Hedge funds, money market funds, private credit, securitisation vehicles: where credit has migrated out of the banks, and where the new fragilities sit, per FSB, ECB and BIS data.13 min readriskThe migration of credit risk: out of the banks, out of sightSince 2008, regulation has made banks more solid. But credit risk has not shrunk, it has moved: non-bank finance now exceeds half of global financial assets, around $250 trillion. A synthesis of that shift, from the hiding places of risk to the re-coupling through banks, and of the debate that divides regulators themselves: a safer system, or merely a less legible one?9 min readaiAI and productivity: between measured gains and assumed effectsControlled studies show real and sometimes spectacular productivity gains on certain tasks. Yet these gains stay invisible in the macro statistics and in most corporate deployments. An objective review of the evidence, from the isolated task to the whole economy, and of the employment effects still to be untangled.10 min readmarketsThe bubble within the bubble: valuations, AI and inflated earningsA number spotted by the FT captures the current unease: adjusted for an earnings level that is itself abnormally high, the S&P 500 CAPE would reach an unprecedented extreme. The bubble thesis, a methodical antithesis, and the role of AI's promises in the equation. A quantified, sourced analysis.10 min readmacroThe AI boom under the BIS lens: real revolution, opaque financing, possible overcapacityThe Bank for International Settlements now files AI investment among the points of financial fragility. Starting from a Finneko thread relaying its chart 13, we go back to the primary report and test the outlook against the literature on technology diffusion and investment bubbles. Circular financing, the shift to debt, the demand bottleneck, and lessons from past booms.7 min readmarketsAI circular financing: when the same dollar goes round and comes back as revenueNvidia invests in OpenAI, which commits to spending hundreds of billions at Oracle, Microsoft or CoreWeave, which buy Nvidia chips. The same dollar loops among a handful of players and comes back out as revenue. With close to $1.4 trillion of compute commitments against roughly $13 billion of revenue, OpenAI crystallises the debate. A quantified map of the loop, and the counter-argument.10 min readaiThe debt behind AI: off-balance-sheet SPVs, bonds, private creditThe AI debate has fixated on stock valuations and circular revenue. The deeper question is how the build-out gets paid for. In 2026 hyperscaler capex absorbs almost all of their operating cash flow, and the balance is tipping into debt. Morgan Stanley expects close to $570 billion of AI-related issuance for the year; AI debt was already the single largest slice of the investment-grade market at the end of 2025. The plumbing of a debt-financed boom: off-balance-sheet Meta-Blue Owl vehicles, a bond market that is starting to choke, private credit and insurers at the end of the chain, and the counter-argument.