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English analysis

Page 8 of 9. Selected l0g analysis pieces translated from the French corpus, newest first.Back to the latest →

14 min readprivate creditPrivate credit, June 2026: a record default, and liquidity closing offFitch's broad default rate stays stuck at 6% in May, semi-liquid funds cap redemptions for the second quarter running, and regulators shift from observation to vigilance. The state of US private credit at mid-2026, on primary sources.9 min readchinaChinese real estate: anatomy of a risk that settles inFive years after the tightening of the 'three red lines', Chinese real estate is not collapsing at once: it is sagging, slowly, and diffusing its risk toward developers, local governments and household savings. A quantified, sourced state of play, without catastrophism or denial.12 min readreal estateCommercial real estate: the 2026 refinancing wall, and the regional linkClose to $1 trillion of commercial real-estate debt matures in 2026, taken out at 3-4% and to be refinanced at 6-7%, against buildings worth 20 to 40% less. The epicentre is the office, and transmission runs through regional banks, over-exposed. Anatomy of a delayed-action risk, between contained and contagious.9 min readuraniumUranium: a market in deficit, the promise of AI, and hidden bottlenecksThe uranium spot price has crossed $100 a pound, reactor demand is set to double by 2040, and AI's electricity needs are plugging nuclear back in. But the bullish thesis runs into delays, a concentrated supply and an enrichment bottleneck dominated by Russia. A full, sourced analysis, thesis and antithesis.9 min readmacroGilts: the market the Bank of England wants to deleverage before the next accidentThe Bank of England is preparing limits on hedge-fund leverage in gilt repo. Behind this margin project hides a broader risk: sovereign-debt markets increasingly depend on short-funded arbitrages, at the very moment states have to issue more.9 min readbondsNo, rising French rates do not signal France leaving the euro zoneWhy markets are absolutely not pricing a Frexit, despite the social-media noise. A fiscal risk premium versus a monetary-rupture pricing: two mechanisms that everything opposes.8 min readcryptoRealT in liquidation: the token that did not own the houseRealT, one of the oldest tokenised real-estate platforms, entered liquidation in early July 2026. The Detroit press investigation shows that its tokens often pointed to houses whose deeds the company did not hold. Autopsy of a bricks-and-mortar RWA, and of the flaw it reveals.6 min readmacroUS import prices: +1.9% in a month, but read the fine printUS import prices jump 1.9% in May 2026, +6.7% year on year. The figures are accurate. But behind the headline, fuel does all the work, and the idea that these indices could replace the CPI does not hold. A read of the BLS data.5 min readyenDollar-yen: the risk is not only the level, it is the unwindUSD/JPY above 161, a more restrictive BoJ, the threat of Japanese intervention: the main risk is less an FX line than a carry-trade and liquidity shock.4 min readmarketsSpaceX goes public, 12 June 2026: the red carpet the SEC rolls out for the most expensive IPO in history by bending its own rulesAccelerated SEC review, a single take-it-or-leave-it price of $135, 30 percent of the offer reserved for retail and a moonshot S-1 promising AI compute satellites in orbit: anatomy of the largest listing ever, its financial risks and the huge short position flagged by Arkham. Good luck to investors, good luck to traders.3 min read13flow13FLOW: the money that is heavy and the money that knows13FLOW industrialises the reading of 13F-HR and Form 4 filings on SEC EDGAR and crosses them into an auditable confluence score. Breakdown of the method: institutional weighting, transaction-code hygiene, time decay and insider clusters.12 min readstablecoinsThe GENIUS Act: the 18 July deadline, between settled rules and a bet on the debtOn 18 July 2026, a year after its enactment, the GENIUS Act reaches the deadline for its implementing rules: six federal agencies finalise the stablecoin framework. What is settled (100% reserves, short Treasury bills, ban on paying yield) and what remains a bet (a wave of debt demand, Tether's fate, run risk). A rigorous analysis, from fact to scenario.4 min readmacroPrivate credit in 2026: the new king of shadow banking starts to cough (and stammer on withdrawals)$2 trillion of AUM, still-sexy yields, but the cracks are showing: exploding redemptions at BDCs, PIK doubling, shadow defaults. Private credit enters its adult phase.2 min readprivate equityZombie funds: the great illusion of private valuations hits its limitsBetween unsellable assets, continuation funds and portfolio-backed loans, private equity faces a silent valuation crisis. Behind stable NAVs hides a liquidity problem that worries investors more and more.13 min readmacroThe dollar rebound: how far before the central banks strike back?The DXY gained 2.3% in June 2026 and touched a thirteen-month high after the Fed's hawkish dot plot. The yen sits beyond 160 despite 11.7 trillion yen of intervention, the ECB and the BoJ raise their rates. Anatomy of a rebound, and of the possible responses.6 min readmacroDe-dollarisation: the narrative versus the numbersThe word is everywhere, the thing much less so. The dollar's share in reserves, payments and FX: what the primary data say (IMF, SWIFT, BIS, World Gold Council), and why 'de-dollarisation' badly names what is happening.11 min readmacroGold and central banks: the silent de-dollarisation counted in tonnesSince 2022, central banks have been buying gold at a pace not seen since the end of Bretton Woods. In 2025, despite record prices, they still acquired 863 tonnes. Gold has become the world's second reserve asset, ahead of the euro. Behind this move, a strategic diversification and a shield against sanctions, but also a vast zone of undeclared purchases. The figures, their limits, and where the narrative runs away.4 min readmacroUS inflation: the March 2026 energy shock, read in the numbersThe US price index jumps to 3.3% year on year in March 2026, driven almost entirely by gasoline. Beneath the surface, core inflation stays contained. What the BLS report says, and why the distinction is the whole point.7 min readfedThe Fed's balance sheet, Kevin Warsh's first battlefieldWarsh wants a smaller, more discreet central bank. But he arrives a few weeks after the committee ended quantitative tightening, and the balance sheet becomes the real ground on which his regime change will play out.7 min readmacroUS regional banks: from the 2023 panic to liquidity reformIn March 2023, three US regional banks vanished in seven weeks, carried off by a deposit run and not by credit losses. Three years later, the system is back in an ample-reserves zone and the regulatory debate has flipped: the Fed no longer seeks to tighten the liquidity ratio, it is thinking about easing it. Timeline, state of liquidity, and the 2026 reform agenda.