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English analysis

Page 17 of 21. English editions of sourced l0g investigations, newest first.Back to the latest →

8 min readeuropeThe ECB faces a 2011 remake: tightening into an oil shockThe ECB faces another imported oil shock after raising rates. Compare 2026 with its 2011 error across inflation, growth and policy conditions.9 min readeuropeEurope borrows without debt: the stack of common borrowing that appears in no ratioNGEU, SAFE and the Ukraine loan could lift EU debt above €1tn by end-2026. See why it sits outside national ratios and who may repay it from 2028.15 min readeuropeEuroclear: the opaque vault at the heart of EuropeA Brussels depository safekeeping €44 trillion in securities, €200 billion of immobilised Russian assets, a record Moscow judgment upheld on 17 July, and a reparations loan dividing the EU's 27 member states. An investigation into the most discreet and most systemic piece of financial infrastructure on the continent, now a geopolitical battleground.10 min readaiThe chip relapse: a bear market on record profitsThe semiconductor index has lost more than 20% since its late-June record and entered a bear market, while TSMC posts profit up 77% and analysts raise their Nvidia estimates. The correction is not hitting profits, it is hitting the multiple. Anatomy of a derating: Meta selling its surplus compute, a delayed Gemini, a hawkish Fed again, and a rotation into memory that reshuffles the AI bet instead of closing it.11 min readmarketsTruth API: the presidential word becomes a paid market data feedTrump Media's Truth API sells faster access to presidential posts for algorithmic trading. Examine the information advantage, Kalshi episode and conflicts.11 min readoilGhost tankers: in the Gulf, the meter runs at $100,000 a daySatellite tracking challenged claims of 230 trapped loaded tankers. The documented bill comes from demurrage, war-risk premiums and a 20% toll.8 min readoilStrategic reserves: the state of the buffer before round twoAt 316.5m barrels, the US SPR was 56% empty after a record IEA release. Compare the remaining US, OECD and Chinese oil buffers.9 min readprivate creditNAV loans: the leverage no one seesFunds borrow against portfolio net asset value as exits slow. Explore a roughly $70bn market, borrowed distributions, double leverage and ILPA safeguards.5 min readgeopoliticsThe broken clocks of the US-Iran memorandumThe 17 June memorandum set 30-day blockade relief and 60-day talks, but strikes resumed. Track what remains of the timetable and the key Hormuz indicators.9 min readinsuranceLife insurers: retirement savings, the silent fuel of private creditNearly a third of US life insurers' $5.6tn asset base sits in private credit. Trace annuities through affiliated reinsurers and private ratings.10 min readprivate creditThe residual value guarantee, the blind spot of the credit that finances AIMeta's $27.3bn Hyperion financing relies on a 16-year residual-value guarantee. Off-balance-sheet AI debt can shift depreciation risk back to Meta.8 min readbanksBasel III in reverse: US regulators hand capital back to the banksThe March 2026 Basel III proposal replaced a planned 19% capital increase with $87.7bn of net relief. Examine leverage ratios, stress tests and risk.9 min readstablecoinsStablecoins, the marginal buyer of US TreasuriesUSDT and USDC reserves turn stablecoin growth into Treasury demand. BIS evidence shows redemptions can raise short yields faster than inflows lower them.9 min readgeopoliticsIran war: an inventory of the oil and gas ships and infrastructure struckA sourced inventory of oil and gas sites and merchant ships struck since 28 February 2026, with confidence levels for each reported event.19 min readgeopoliticsThe 2026 Iran war: anatomy of a global economic and political earthquakeThe Iran conflict reshapes oil supply, inflation, food security and alliances. Compare the channels and three macroeconomic scenarios through 2027.13 min readgeopoliticsHormuz: the supply chain takes the hit, the bill is already hereFive months after Hormuz closed, freight costs had doubled and pressure reached European gas and fertiliser. Follow the supply-chain bill beyond crude oil.10 min readoilCushing: the Oklahoma terminal that sets the US oil priceCushing inventories fell near their operating floor in June 2026. See how the WTI delivery hub, pipelines and backwardation transmit physical scarcity.8 min readgeopoliticsThe Hormuz crisis: Asia's bill for an energy shock, at the hour of the truceA quantified, sourced assessment of the effects of the Strait of Hormuz blockade on Asia, from India to Japan: revised growth, imported inflation, industrial shortages, food threat. As the 17 June MoU begins a fragile reopening, the cumulative bill stays heavy and will take months to absorb.6 min readgeopoliticsHormuz reopens: three quantified scenarios for the normalisation of the oil marketThe 14 June US-Iran deal reopens the Strait of Hormuz, signing on the 19th in Geneva. But the deal took out the war premium, not the damage. A quantified, sourced analysis of the traffic recovery and three Brent price trajectories.8 min readiranThe US-Iran MoU: a ceasefire that destabilises more than it soothesThe memorandum of understanding signed on 17 June at the Palace of Versailles between Washington and Tehran, in force at once, stops the fire but settles nothing. It validates Iranian leverage over Hormuz, sidelines Israel and fractures a US political class now critical on both flanks. A sourced read of the geopolitical consequences and the US political risk.