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Page 16 of 21. English editions of sourced l0g investigations, newest first.Back to the latest →

6 min readeuropeItaly's borrowed calmItaly's spread over Germany hit its lowest since 2008, but only 6 of 40 basis points of 2025 tightening came from BTPs. Most came from a weaker Bund.7 min readeuropeThree thousand euros, no moreIn the same week, two European projects target the same savings in opposite directions. The savings union wants deposits to leave banks for the markets. The digital euro is capped at €3,000 per person precisely so that deposits do not move at all. That cap is not a technical detail: it is the confession of Frankfurt's real fear, a flight of deposits. An X-ray of a currency invented in the hope that it will not be used too much.12 min readeuropeTen trillion asleepEurope holds the largest pool of savings in the developed world and lets it sleep in deposit accounts while €300 billion a year drains off to finance the American economy. The Savings and Investments Union wants to reverse that paradox. But the lock is not a shortage of money: it is twenty-seven insolvency laws, twenty-seven tax codes and twenty-seven supervisors. Anatomy of a project that runs into what no one wants to give up.14 min readmarketsThe cash that is not cash: the hidden liquidity buffer in bond fundsOpen-end bond funds hold a liquidity buffer near 5%, but only 0.4% is cash. N-PORT data reveal reliance on money-market funds and repo during redemptions.10 min readmarketsHigh yield holds up while investment grade flees: what the bond market is really measuringInvestment-grade funds lost $7.1bn in one week while high yield gained $534m. Duration explains the paradox before credit risk does.8 min readaiThe ghost kilowatt: who pays for the grid if the data center never arrives?Utilities may build for data-center demand that never arrives. Compare Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin tariffs, minimum payments and collateral.9 min readoilWhen the barrel becomes a margin call: the hidden liquidity bill of the oil shockAn oil producer can be hedged yet face a cash squeeze as futures margins rise. Understand the 2022 precedent, bank exposure and breaking points.6 min readaiIntelligence on the cheap: China's open-source AI strategy against the capex bubbleOn 17 July 2026, Moonshot released Kimi K3, billed as the world's largest open-source model, while Qwen passed a billion downloads and DeepSeek keeps shipping under a permissive licence. Read through a financial lens, this is not a technology race, it is a deflationary weapon. China is collapsing the price of intelligence just as US giants commit $725 billion of capex whose return assumes a margin that free models are melting away.7 min readfedThe Fed trapped by the barrel: the data before the 29 July FOMCBrent moved above $100 six days before the July Fed meeting while June CPI cooled to 3.5%. See why oil blocks cuts without automatically forcing a hike.Updated 10 min readclarity actThe CLARITY Act under the scalpel: the new architecture of US cryptoA section-by-section reading of the 594-page US crypto bill: maturity test, issuer disclosures, exchange registration, DeFi exclusions and CBDC ban.6 min readus treasuryWho buys the bill deluge? The US Treasury's new marginal buyerThe Treasury plans $671bn of net issuance while reverse repo is nearly empty. Map demand from money funds, stablecoins, foreigners and banks.6 min readfedThe cushion is gone: RRP drained, the Treasury reloads, reserves in the front lineThe Fed's RRP fell from $2.5tn to $1.2bn as Treasury targets $671bn of quarterly borrowing. The next liquidity drain reaches bank reserves.7 min readcreditThe tightening that didn't happen: the ECB's credit survey, and the private-credit crackThe July 2026 ECB survey showed less tightening for firms than feared, while household and private-credit stress grew. Compare the two credit channels.Updated 7 min readcryptoCLARITY Act: Trump concedes on ethics, the August countdown beginsTrump accepted an ethics provision on 20 July 2026, but the CLARITY Act text was not public. Track Senate votes and the calendar before the August recess.8 min readjapanFiscal dominance made real: Japan subordinates its central bank to its budgetJapan's 30-year yield reached 3.90% after budget guidance tied monetary policy to growth. Examine BoJ independence, debt costs and global spillovers.10 min readimfArgentina, half the lending window: anatomy of the largest exposure in IMF historyAs of 17 July 2026, Argentina owed SDR 42.55bn, or 46.1% of IMF non-concessional credit. The borrower and creditor now depend on one programme.8 min readgeopoliticsThe Gulf is thirsty: desalinated water, the petromonarchies' financial Achilles heelKuwaiti desalination plants were struck twice as Gulf states relied on coastal systems with days of water storage. Map infrastructure and financial risk.8 min readchinaThe world's factory marks everything down: China's deflation, shock absorber and poisonChina has just officially exited three years of quasi-deflation, but by pushing record surpluses out the door: $412 billion of exports in June, a record surplus with Europe, electric vehicle exports doubling while only three brands stay profitable. The deflation has not disappeared, it has emigrated, and it is cushioning the Western oil shock at this very moment. The ECB has quantified the effect; European industry is footing the bill.9 min readmacroThe emerging markets double squeeze: strong dollar, wartime barrelBrent back at $88, a greenback at a thirteen-month high fuelled by Fed hike bets, emerging currencies that have erased their 2026 gains: the vice of 2022 is being reassembled piece by piece. Facing it, emerging sovereign spreads asleep at multi-year lows and an IMF already lending at record levels. An X-ray of the gap between the mechanics and the pricing.8 min readeuropeThe end of Bund scarcityGermany plans €511.5bn of 2026 issuance as the 10-year Bund traded above swaps. Why supply and ECB tightening erased its scarcity premium.