// definition
RONI
Relative Oceanic Niño Index
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Short definition
NOAA index based on a three-month running mean of the sea-surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region, after subtracting the tropical mean anomaly and applying a variance adjustment. It measures a relative ocean contrast; the probability of crossing its threshold does not measure the probability of economic losses.
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Intuition
Read the threshold, period and index construction before interpreting its probability.