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English analysis

Page 6 of 9. Selected l0g analysis pieces translated from the French corpus, newest first.Back to the latest →

15 min readmarketsTruth API: the presidential word becomes a paid market data feedOn 16 July, Trump Media announced Truth API, a paid feed selling algorithmic traders a few milliseconds' head start on the president's posts. The same day, the White House teleprompter operator was suspended for betting on Trump's speeches via Kalshi. Two stories, one underlying: the presidential word has become a tradable asset, and the information rent now comes with a subscription plan.14 min readoilGhost tankers: in the Gulf, the meter runs at $100,000 a dayThe blockade reimposed on 14 July closes the trap on the Gulf's oil fleet again. One figure is doing the rounds, 230 loaded tankers stuck; satellite tracking tells a different story. An autopsy of the count, then the real accounting of a closed strait: demurrage above $100,000 per ship per day, war risk premiums settled at 5% of hull value, and a 20% toll on top.10 min readoilStrategic reserves: the state of the buffer before round twoThe US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to 316.5 million barrels, its lowest since 1983, after the record 400-million-barrel release coordinated by the IEA in March. The blockade reimposed on 14 July reopens the supply shock with dented shock absorbers. A quantified inventory of the remaining cushions, of the only buffer still full, China's, and of the oil market's real safety margins.12 min readprivate creditNAV loans: the leverage no one seesStarved of exits, private equity and private credit funds borrow against the net asset value of their entire portfolio. The NAV loan market reached about $70 billion deployed in 2025 and could triple by 2030. Mechanics, the controversial use of borrowed distributions, leverage on leverage, the ILPA framework and the model's defence: a breakdown of the most discreet link in the private credit chain.6 min readgeopoliticsThe broken clocks of the US-Iran memorandumSigned on 17 June, the US-Iran memorandum was meant to lift the blockade within 30 days and open 60 days of negotiations. Strikes resumed, Washington reimposed the blockade, and the text no longer drives events. What remains of the calendar, the risks around Hormuz, and the indicators to watch.13 min readinsuranceLife insurers: retirement savings, the silent fuel of private creditNearly a third of the $5.6 trillion in US life insurers' assets is invested in private credit. Behind that figure, a model industrialised by Apollo and Athene: gather annuities, cede the reserves to an affiliated Bermuda reinsurer, and turn illiquid loans into privately rated bonds. A breakdown of the triangle, the 777 Re precedent, and the model's defence.14 min readprivate creditThe residual value guarantee, the blind spot of the credit that finances AIAI data centers are increasingly financed off balance sheet, through vehicles that lease the hardware and rely on a residual value guarantee. Meta signed one over sixteen years for Hyperion. A breakdown of the structure, the chip-depreciation risk, and the precedent of the 2008 auto-leasing bust.10 min readbanksBasel III in reverse: US regulators hand capital back to the banksThe final stage of Basel III was meant to raise the capital of the largest US banks by 19%. Under the Fed's new leadership, the March 2026 re-proposal instead delivers net relief of about $87.7bn, alongside the reform of the leverage ratio and the softening of stress tests. An analysis of a rollback, its rationale, and the risk it displaces.10 min readstablecoinsStablecoins, the marginal buyer of US TreasuriesThe GENIUS Act turned stablecoin issuers into structural buyers of short-dated US debt. Tether already weighs like a country among the Treasury's creditors. This captive demand compresses short yields, but a BIS study shows an outflow raises yields more than an inflow lowers them. An analysis of the transmission channel, from crypto to sovereign debt.10 min readgeopoliticsIran war: an inventory of the oil and gas ships and infrastructure struckSince the strikes of 28 February 2026, the war around Iran has targeted oil and gas on two fronts: major energy sites, from South Pars to Ras Laffan, and dozens of merchant ships. As complete an inventory as the sources allow, with its degrees of certainty made explicit.19 min readgeopoliticsThe 2026 Iran war: anatomy of a global economic and political earthquakeHow a regional conflict is redrawing inflation, alliances, and the domestic politics of every great power. Energy shock, stagflation, food crisis, geopolitical recomposition and three scenarios to 2027.16 min readgeopoliticsHormuz: the supply chain takes the hit, the bill is already hereThe mid-June ceasefire took the war premium out of oil prices, but not the ships out of the queues. Five months after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the damage to the global supply chain is already measurable: doubled freight, European gas under strain, rationed fertiliser. A quantified, sourced assessment.13 min readoilCushing: the Oklahoma terminal that sets the US oil priceThe Cushing tanks, the delivery point of the WTI contract, fell to about 19.7 million barrels in late June 2026, close to their operating floor. An explainer of this pipeline crossroads, a read of the EIA data and scenarios, including one where China starts buying again.9 min readgeopoliticsThe Hormuz crisis: Asia's bill for an energy shock, at the hour of the truceA quantified, sourced assessment of the effects of the Strait of Hormuz blockade on Asia, from India to Japan: revised growth, imported inflation, industrial shortages, food threat. As the 17 June MoU begins a fragile reopening, the cumulative bill stays heavy and will take months to absorb.8 min readgeopoliticsHormuz reopens: three quantified scenarios for the normalisation of the oil marketThe 14 June US-Iran deal reopens the Strait of Hormuz, signing on the 19th in Geneva. But the deal took out the war premium, not the damage. A quantified, sourced analysis of the traffic recovery and three Brent price trajectories.11 min readiranThe US-Iran MoU: a ceasefire that destabilises more than it soothesThe memorandum of understanding signed on 17 June at the Palace of Versailles between Washington and Tehran, in force at once, stops the fire but settles nothing. It validates Iranian leverage over Hormuz, sidelines Israel and fractures a US political class now critical on both flanks. A sourced read of the geopolitical consequences and the US political risk.8 min readlebanonLebanon: the forgotten big loser, and Trump's very dangerous Syrian gambleIsrael occupies nearly a fifth of Lebanon, the promised gas remains a mirage, and Donald Trump now suggests that al-Sharaa's Syria deal with Hezbollah. A documented analysis of a country that asked for nothing and that no one wants to rebuild, while Iran is promised $300bn.5 min readgeopoliticsAid cuts and a fertiliser shock: the food risk converging on the poorest countriesUSAID dismantled in 2025, the Strait of Hormuz disrupted in 2026: two shocks stack on the same importing countries. What the WFP, FAO and Lancet numbers actually say, without extrapolation.6 min readmacroCopper: the shortage arriving via Hormuz and El NiñoAn updated overview of the copper market as of 26 June 2026: LME price, ICSG data, sulphuric acid, the Strait of Hormuz, El Niño and electrification demand.6 min readchinaChina: behind the fall in crude imports, a new market powerChinese crude purchases collapsed to 7.79m b/d in May 2026. Hormuz, inventories, refining margins and electrification explain a decline less simple than it looks.