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English analysis

Page 14 of 17. English editions of sourced l0g investigations, newest first.Back to the latest →

10 min readoilCushing: the Oklahoma terminal that sets the US oil priceCushing inventories fell near their operating floor in June 2026. See how the WTI delivery hub, pipelines and backwardation transmit physical scarcity.8 min readgeopoliticsThe Hormuz crisis: Asia's bill for an energy shock, at the hour of the truceA quantified, sourced assessment of the effects of the Strait of Hormuz blockade on Asia, from India to Japan: revised growth, imported inflation, industrial shortages, food threat. As the 17 June MoU begins a fragile reopening, the cumulative bill stays heavy and will take months to absorb.6 min readgeopoliticsHormuz reopens: three quantified scenarios for the normalisation of the oil marketThe 14 June US-Iran deal reopens the Strait of Hormuz, signing on the 19th in Geneva. But the deal took out the war premium, not the damage. A quantified, sourced analysis of the traffic recovery and three Brent price trajectories.8 min readiranThe US-Iran MoU: a ceasefire that destabilises more than it soothesThe memorandum of understanding signed on 17 June at the Palace of Versailles between Washington and Tehran, in force at once, stops the fire but settles nothing. It validates Iranian leverage over Hormuz, sidelines Israel and fractures a US political class now critical on both flanks. A sourced read of the geopolitical consequences and the US political risk.6 min readlebanonLebanon: the forgotten big loser, and Trump's very dangerous Syrian gambleIsrael occupies nearly a fifth of Lebanon while offshore gas remains unrealised and US policy leans on Syria. Examine reconstruction and regional risks.4 min readgeopoliticsAid cuts and a fertiliser shock: the food risk converging on the poorest countriesUSAID dismantled in 2025, the Strait of Hormuz disrupted in 2026: two shocks stack on the same importing countries. What the WFP, FAO and Lancet numbers actually say, without extrapolation.5 min readmacroCopper: the shortage arriving via Hormuz and El NiñoRefined copper showed a 239,000-tonne surplus through April, but mine output fell 1.4%. Acid supply, Hormuz and El Niño expose tighter inputs.5 min readchinaChina: behind the fall in crude imports, a new market powerChina's crude imports fell to 7.79m b/d in May 2026. Hormuz disruption, refinery margins, inventories and electrification explain the drop.4 min readoilOil: the Chinese inventory that caps pricesChina built a 1.24bn-barrel oil stockpile and drew on reserves when crude rose. How its buying sets a floor, a ceiling and limits on market power.5 min readfinance"The American people as shareholders of AI": anatomy of a presidential scamA line dropped aboard Air Force One sends chip stocks up by tens of billions. Why "the people's stake in AI" will not happen in this form, and why the announcement is the only deliverable.3 min readgeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz, April 2026: the state of a blocked chokepointSince 28 February 2026, the Strait of Hormuz has been de facto closed. What the official sources (EIA, IEA, CRS) say about the blockade, the oil shock and the shock absorbers, as of 10 April, with an update on the way out of the crisis.4 min readgeopoliticsIran and its Hormuz tolls in USDT on Tron: a masterclass in OFAC evasionHow the IRGC gets paid in dollars without Uncle Sam being able to touch a cent: a sovereign toll in USDT on Tron, yuan payments via CIPS, and the whole toolbox of sanctions-evasion 2.0.7 min readmarketsSemiconductors: the stack of constraints behind AIRead the semiconductor cycle as a stack of constraints across GPUs, HBM memory, EUV lithography, foundries, packaging and geographic capacity.5 min readcryptoMiCA, Binance and Lagarde's shadow: what is established, what is narratedTwo weeks before the end of MiCA's transitional regime, the largest crypto platform in the world has no European licence. The press attributes the Greek blockage to an intervention by Christine Lagarde, which neither the ECB nor Athens confirms. A sourced untangling of the facts and the narrative.8 min readcryptoAgent payments: how an AI settles the bill, and who holds the railsTrace an autonomous payment from HTTP 402 through x402 and USDC, then map how Coinbase, Google AP2, Visa and Mastercard divide the payment stack.23 min readcryptoFrom attention to intention: the agentic economy and the resurrection of the 402 codeAI agents, stablecoins, MCP, A2A and x402 could add a payment layer to the web. Separate working rails from adoption claims and regulatory constraints.8 min readinflationPersistent inflation risk in 2026: the Iranian energy shock, upward revisions and challenges for central banksUS CPI reached 4.2% in May 2026 as energy prices surged after the Iran conflict. Examine core inflation, tariffs and the policy bind for the Fed.7 min readfedWarsh's first FOMC: the easy status quo, the rest much less soThe Fed enters Warsh's first meeting with inflation at 4.2%, a divided dot plot and bond pressure. Rates may stay unchanged, but guidance matters.8 min readmacroThe basis trade: at its highest per the Fed, moribund per the marketThe Fed estimates an $830bn basis trade, nearly twice its 2020 peak. Repo costs and mandatory clearing can weaken returns while leverage stays high.7 min readmacroRecord auctions: the weekly referendum on US debtThe July 30-year auction cleared above 5%, its highest yield since 2007, with a second tail but solid indirect demand. How to read each signal.