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English analysis

Page 13 of 17. English editions of sourced l0g investigations, newest first.Back to the latest →

8 min readgeopoliticsThe Gulf is thirsty: desalinated water, the petromonarchies' financial Achilles heelKuwaiti desalination plants were struck twice as Gulf states relied on coastal systems with days of water storage. Map infrastructure and financial risk.8 min readchinaThe world's factory marks everything down: China's deflation, shock absorber and poisonChina has just officially exited three years of quasi-deflation, but by pushing record surpluses out the door: $412 billion of exports in June, a record surplus with Europe, electric vehicle exports doubling while only three brands stay profitable. The deflation has not disappeared, it has emigrated, and it is cushioning the Western oil shock at this very moment. The ECB has quantified the effect; European industry is footing the bill.9 min readmacroThe emerging markets double squeeze: strong dollar, wartime barrelBrent back at $88, a greenback at a thirteen-month high fuelled by Fed hike bets, emerging currencies that have erased their 2026 gains: the vice of 2022 is being reassembled piece by piece. Facing it, emerging sovereign spreads asleep at multi-year lows and an IMF already lending at record levels. An X-ray of the gap between the mechanics and the pricing.8 min readeuropeThe end of Bund scarcityGermany plans €511.5bn of 2026 issuance as the 10-year Bund traded above swaps. Why supply and ECB tightening erased its scarcity premium.8 min readeuropeThe ECB faces a 2011 remake: tightening into an oil shockThe ECB faces another imported oil shock after raising rates. Compare 2026 with its 2011 error across inflation, growth and policy conditions.9 min readeuropeEurope borrows without debt: the stack of common borrowing that appears in no ratioNGEU, SAFE and the Ukraine loan could lift EU debt above €1tn by end-2026. See why it sits outside national ratios and who may repay it from 2028.15 min readeuropeEuroclear: the opaque vault at the heart of EuropeA Brussels depository safekeeping €44 trillion in securities, €200 billion of immobilised Russian assets, a record Moscow judgment upheld on 17 July, and a reparations loan dividing the EU's 27 member states. An investigation into the most discreet and most systemic piece of financial infrastructure on the continent, now a geopolitical battleground.10 min readaiThe chip relapse: a bear market on record profitsThe semiconductor index has lost more than 20% since its late-June record and entered a bear market, while TSMC posts profit up 77% and analysts raise their Nvidia estimates. The correction is not hitting profits, it is hitting the multiple. Anatomy of a derating: Meta selling its surplus compute, a delayed Gemini, a hawkish Fed again, and a rotation into memory that reshuffles the AI bet instead of closing it.11 min readmarketsTruth API: the presidential word becomes a paid market data feedTrump Media's Truth API sells faster access to presidential posts for algorithmic trading. Examine the information advantage, Kalshi episode and conflicts.11 min readoilGhost tankers: in the Gulf, the meter runs at $100,000 a daySatellite tracking challenged claims of 230 trapped loaded tankers. The documented bill comes from demurrage, war-risk premiums and a 20% toll.8 min readoilStrategic reserves: the state of the buffer before round twoAt 316.5m barrels, the US SPR was 56% empty after a record IEA release. Compare the remaining US, OECD and Chinese oil buffers.9 min readprivate creditNAV loans: the leverage no one seesFunds borrow against portfolio net asset value as exits slow. Explore a roughly $70bn market, borrowed distributions, double leverage and ILPA safeguards.5 min readgeopoliticsThe broken clocks of the US-Iran memorandumThe 17 June memorandum set 30-day blockade relief and 60-day talks, but strikes resumed. Track what remains of the timetable and the key Hormuz indicators.9 min readinsuranceLife insurers: retirement savings, the silent fuel of private creditNearly a third of US life insurers' $5.6tn asset base sits in private credit. Trace annuities through affiliated reinsurers and private ratings.10 min readprivate creditThe residual value guarantee, the blind spot of the credit that finances AIMeta's $27.3bn Hyperion financing relies on a 16-year residual-value guarantee. Off-balance-sheet AI debt can shift depreciation risk back to Meta.8 min readbanksBasel III in reverse: US regulators hand capital back to the banksThe March 2026 Basel III proposal replaced a planned 19% capital increase with $87.7bn of net relief. Examine leverage ratios, stress tests and risk.9 min readstablecoinsStablecoins, the marginal buyer of US TreasuriesUSDT and USDC reserves turn stablecoin growth into Treasury demand. BIS evidence shows redemptions can raise short yields faster than inflows lower them.9 min readgeopoliticsIran war: an inventory of the oil and gas ships and infrastructure struckA sourced inventory of oil and gas sites and merchant ships struck since 28 February 2026, with confidence levels for each reported event.19 min readgeopoliticsThe 2026 Iran war: anatomy of a global economic and political earthquakeThe Iran conflict reshapes oil supply, inflation, food security and alliances. Compare the channels and three macroeconomic scenarios through 2027.13 min readgeopoliticsHormuz: the supply chain takes the hit, the bill is already hereFive months after Hormuz closed, freight costs had doubled and pressure reached European gas and fertiliser. Follow the supply-chain bill beyond crude oil.