l0grisk intelligence · english

// definition

Counterfactual

Estimated outcome without an intervention

freshreviewed 0 days ago
Macro & central banks

Short definition

An estimated outcome that would have occurred without an intervention, allowing for other relevant conditions. It provides a comparison with the observed result and depends on the model and its assumptions. A price decline following an announcement alone does not establish the announcement’s effect.

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Intuition

Estimated outcome without an intervention.