When $110 billion of collateral isn't enough to borrow $6 billion

… And it’s a worrying symptom for all of BigTech

---

On Wednesday 10 June, Bloomberg revealed that SoftBank’s talks to raise at least $6 billion via a margin loan backed by its stake in OpenAI had stalled. The stock fell as much as 9.7% in Tokyo. From afar, a funding hiccup. Up close, one of the coldest signals the credit market has sent since the start of the AI cycle.

Let us analyse this refusal

Timeline: on 23 April, Bloomberg reports that SoftBank is seeking $10 billion over 2 years with a one-year extension option, at about SOFR + 425 basis points, around 7.9%. In May, faced with some creditors’ reluctance over OpenAI’s valuation, the target is cut 40%, to $6 billion. About $5 billion of commitments are gathered, without knowing whether they were firm or verbal. Then the talks stall. Bloomberg specifies that the reason for the blockage is not known and that the file could come back later.

The collateral: about 13% of OpenAI, the fruit of a cumulative investment of about $64.6 billion once the last payment is closed. At the price of the latest round, closed on 31 March at $852 billion post-money valuation for $122 billion raised, figures announced by OpenAI itself, this stake is worth notionally some $110 billion. The exact perimeter of the pledge has not been made public, but the order of magnitude speaks: $6 billion sought against a $110 billion notional position, a loan-to-value below 6% if the whole position served as collateral. And the banks said no.

When a lender refuses an LTV of this order, it is not saying the asset is a little overvalued. It is saying its recoverable value, in case of trouble, is close to zero.

A collateral that is not one

OpenAI shares tick every box of bad collateral. Unlisted: no continuous price, no liquidity to sell them in a margin call. Their valuation comes not from a market but from private rounds. And who co-leads these rounds? SoftBank, which entered at a $300 billion valuation in April 2025 per Reuters, then co-led the $852 billion round of March 2026, with $30 billion invested. In one year, the borrower nearly tripled the price of its own collateral by injecting its billions into it. Any credit committee spots the circularity in thirty seconds. A detail noted by Bloomberg: of the $50 billion promised by Amazon in that same round, $35 billion is conditional on an IPO or the reaching of AGI.

The loan’s motivation completes the picture: to finance the continuation of the group’s AI offensive, OpenAI commitments included. Borrowing against your OpenAI shares to keep buying OpenAI is leverage stacked on a self-sustaining valuation, whose guarantee is the very object of the bet.

The symptom no one wants to see

The equity market, for its part, still prices the dream: on 1 June, SoftBank gained 14% in the session, passed ¥48 trillion of market cap and dethroned Toyota as Japan’s most valuable stock, a first since 2003. On 4 June, the stock lost 11.3%, about ¥5 trillion wiped out in one session. The credit market, less lyrical, has just rendered its own verdict: the private marks of AI are not monetisable.

Yet the whole edifice rests on it. To honour its $22.5 billion tranche to OpenAI at the end of 2025, SoftBank sold its entire Nvidia position, $5.8 billion, sold $4.8 billion of T-Mobile and froze most Vision Fund deals, any ticket above $50 million requiring the personal sign-off of Masayoshi Son, Reuters reported in December. The group’s standalone interest-bearing debt reportedly reaches ¥16.3 trillion at the end of 2025, about $104 billion per S&P, which placed the BB+ rating on negative outlook in March. Above all, a record $40 billion bridge loan, this one unsecured, announced on 27 March with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Mizuho, SMBC and MUFG, matures in March 2027. Its 12-month maturity says everything: the lenders are betting on an OpenAI IPO within the year. The confidential filing was reported in May by CNBC and the WSJ, with a listing targeted as soon as September 2026 above $1 trillion.

There is the mechanics laid bare: banks carry $40 billion of unsecured exposure whose repayment depends on an IPO, while refusing to advance $6 billion against the shares of the same company with a massive margin of safety. The two positions are coherent only on one condition: that the market window opens on schedule and at the hoped price. If the IPO slips, or validates a price far below the $852 billion of the latest round, the phantom collateral and the very real debt will find themselves face to face.

Crisis historians will recognise the pattern. Japan in 1989 lent against land whose price could not fall. 2007 securitised super-senior tranches rated AAA by construction. In both cases, the collateral was worth its price as long as no one asked to convert it into cash. SoftBank has just asked. The answer came.

Let us add, still per Bloomberg, that some SoftBank executives worry internally about the scale of the commitment, at a moment when Anthropic’s progress puts OpenAI’s competitive position into perspective. When doubt reaches even the main shareholder, the price of private rounds becomes a fragile convention.

What this refusal really says

The consensus will want to see a technical incident, merely postponed. It is possible. But the simplest reading remains the most disturbing: faced with the most celebrated private asset on the planet, the banks preferred to abstain. They have just quietly drawn the border between a valuation and a price. All the AI capex, its hundreds of billions of debt and cross-financing, is built on the wrong side of that border. We will soon know whether June 2026 was a hiccup or a warning.

Sources

1. Bloomberg, 10 June 2026, blockage of the $6bn margin loan, $5bn of commitments, internal doubts, Anthropic: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-10/softbank-s-attempt-to-get-6-billion-openai-margin-loan-stalls
2. Bloomberg, 23 April 2026, initial search for $10bn, 2-year + 1 structure: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-23/softbank-seeks-10-billion-margin-loan-backed-by-openai-shares
3. Bloomberg, 31 March 2026, OpenAI round of $122bn at $852bn, Amazon $50bn of which $35bn conditional, Nvidia and SoftBank $30bn each: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-31/openai-valued-at-852-billion-after-completing-122-billion-round
4. OpenAI, statement of 31 March 2026, $122bn raised, $852bn post-money: https://openai.com/index/accelerating-the-next-phase-ai/
5. CNBC, 31 March 2026, SoftBank co-leads the round: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/31/openai-funding-round-ipo.html
6. Bloomberg, 27 March 2026, unsecured $40bn bridge loan, March 2027 maturity, bank syndicate: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-27/softbank-secures-record-40-billion-bridge-loan-for-openai-stake
7. Reuters, 19 December 2025, $22.5bn tranche, Nvidia sale $5.8bn, T-Mobile $4.8bn, Vision Fund freeze, entry at $300bn valuation in April 2025 (accessible copy): https://www.marketscreener.com/news/softbank-races-to-fulfill-22-5-billion-funding-commitment-to-openai-by-year-end-sources-say-ce7d50ddd089f027
8. Kyodo via Japan Today, 1 June 2026, market cap above ¥48 trillion, Toyota overtaken, +14% in the session: https://japantoday.com/category/business/update1-softbank-overtakes-toyota-to-become-japan's-most-valuable-company
9. CNBC, 4 June 2026, stock down more than 11%: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/04/softbanks-shares-are-down-10percent-amid-broader-tech-sell-off.html
10. The Next Web, 8 May 2026, SOFR + 425 bps rate, notional value of about $110bn, stake of about 13%, cumulative investment of $64.6bn, S&P BB+ rating negative outlook: https://thenextweb.com/news/softbank-10b-margin-loan-openai-stake-collateral
11. S&P Global Ratings, standalone debt of about ¥16.3 trillion (~$104bn) at the end of 2025, cited by TradingKey, 5 June 2026: https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/more/261946147-softbank-openai-arm-softbankstockpriceplummeted
12. CNBC and WSJ via Investing.com, OpenAI confidential IPO filing, listing targeted as soon as September 2026 above $1 trillion: https://www.investing.com/analysis/the-trilliondollar-ipo-test-spacex-and-openai-face-public-markets-200680688