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English analysis

Page 4 of 8. Selected l0g analysis pieces translated from the French corpus, newest first.Back to the latest →

11 min readmacroThe emerging markets double squeeze: strong dollar, wartime barrelBrent back at $88, a greenback at a thirteen-month high fuelled by Fed hike bets, emerging currencies that have erased their 2026 gains: the vice of 2022 is being reassembled piece by piece. Facing it, emerging sovereign spreads asleep at multi-year lows and an IMF already lending at record levels. An X-ray of the gap between the mechanics and the pricing.9 min readeuropeThe end of Bund scarcityFor a decade, the German federal bond was a rationed asset: the debt brake on one side, massive ECB purchases on the other. That regime is dead. The Bund yields 3.14%, above the swap rate for the first time in its history, Germany will issue €511 billion this year, and the market must absorb what the central bank used to make unfindable. An X-ray of a regime change that is redrawing the entire European curve.9 min readeuropeThe ECB faces a 2011 remake: tightening into an oil shockOn Thursday 23 July the ECB decides, one month after its first rate hike since 2023, voted amid a war-driven oil surge in the Middle East. The last time it raised rates into an imported supply shock was 2011: the mistake made it into the textbooks. The resemblances, the differences, and the paradox of the moment, with inflation cooling just as the barrel reheats.11 min readeuropeEurope borrows without debt: the stack of common borrowing that appears in no ratioNGEU, the Ukraine loan, SAFE: the European Union has become one of the continent's largest issuers, with a trillion euros of outstandings expected by the end of 2026, without a single euro showing up in any member state's debt. An X-ray of a de facto federal debt, built one temporary programme at a time, whose repayment starts in 2028 with no payer yet identified.21 min readeuropeEuroclear: the opaque vault at the heart of EuropeA Brussels depository safekeeping €44 trillion in securities, €200 billion of immobilised Russian assets, a record Moscow judgment upheld on 17 July, and a reparations loan dividing the EU's 27 member states. An investigation into the most discreet and most systemic piece of financial infrastructure on the continent, now a geopolitical battleground.12 min readaiThe chip relapse: a bear market on record profitsThe semiconductor index has lost more than 20% since its late-June record and entered a bear market, while TSMC posts profit up 77% and analysts raise their Nvidia estimates. The correction is not hitting profits, it is hitting the multiple. Anatomy of a derating: Meta selling its surplus compute, a delayed Gemini, a hawkish Fed again, and a rotation into memory that reshuffles the AI bet instead of closing it.15 min readmarketsTruth API: the presidential word becomes a paid market data feedOn 16 July, Trump Media announced Truth API, a paid feed selling algorithmic traders a few milliseconds' head start on the president's posts. The same day, the White House teleprompter operator was suspended for betting on Trump's speeches via Kalshi. Two stories, one underlying: the presidential word has become a tradable asset, and the information rent now comes with a subscription plan.14 min readoilGhost tankers: in the Gulf, the meter runs at $100,000 a dayThe blockade reimposed on 14 July closes the trap on the Gulf's oil fleet again. One figure is doing the rounds, 230 loaded tankers stuck; satellite tracking tells a different story. An autopsy of the count, then the real accounting of a closed strait: demurrage above $100,000 per ship per day, war risk premiums settled at 5% of hull value, and a 20% toll on top.10 min readoilStrategic reserves: the state of the buffer before round twoThe US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to 316.5 million barrels, its lowest since 1983, after the record 400-million-barrel release coordinated by the IEA in March. The blockade reimposed on 14 July reopens the supply shock with dented shock absorbers. A quantified inventory of the remaining cushions, of the only buffer still full, China's, and of the oil market's real safety margins.12 min readprivate creditNAV loans: the leverage no one seesStarved of exits, private equity and private credit funds borrow against the net asset value of their entire portfolio. The NAV loan market reached about $70 billion deployed in 2025 and could triple by 2030. Mechanics, the controversial use of borrowed distributions, leverage on leverage, the ILPA framework and the model's defence: a breakdown of the most discreet link in the private credit chain.6 min readgeopoliticsThe broken clocks of the US-Iran memorandumSigned on 17 June, the US-Iran memorandum was meant to lift the blockade within 30 days and open 60 days of negotiations. Strikes resumed, Washington reimposed the blockade, and the text no longer drives events. What remains of the calendar, the risks around Hormuz, and the indicators to watch.13 min readinsuranceLife insurers: retirement savings, the silent fuel of private creditNearly a third of the $5.6 trillion in US life insurers' assets is invested in private credit. Behind that figure, a model industrialised by Apollo and Athene: gather annuities, cede the reserves to an affiliated Bermuda reinsurer, and turn illiquid loans into privately rated bonds. A breakdown of the triangle, the 777 Re precedent, and the model's defence.14 min readprivate creditThe residual value guarantee, the blind spot of the credit that finances AIAI data centers are increasingly financed off balance sheet, through vehicles that lease the hardware and rely on a residual value guarantee. Meta signed one over sixteen years for Hyperion. A breakdown of the structure, the chip-depreciation risk, and the precedent of the 2008 auto-leasing bust.10 min readbanksBasel III in reverse: US regulators hand capital back to the banksThe final stage of Basel III was meant to raise the capital of the largest US banks by 19%. Under the Fed's new leadership, the March 2026 re-proposal instead delivers net relief of about $87.7bn, alongside the reform of the leverage ratio and the softening of stress tests. An analysis of a rollback, its rationale, and the risk it displaces.10 min readstablecoinsStablecoins, the marginal buyer of US TreasuriesThe GENIUS Act turned stablecoin issuers into structural buyers of short-dated US debt. Tether already weighs like a country among the Treasury's creditors. This captive demand compresses short yields, but a BIS study shows an outflow raises yields more than an inflow lowers them. An analysis of the transmission channel, from crypto to sovereign debt.10 min readgeopoliticsIran war: an inventory of the oil and gas ships and infrastructure struckSince the strikes of 28 February 2026, the war around Iran has targeted oil and gas on two fronts: major energy sites, from South Pars to Ras Laffan, and dozens of merchant ships. As complete an inventory as the sources allow, with its degrees of certainty made explicit.19 min readgeopoliticsThe 2026 Iran war: anatomy of a global economic and political earthquakeHow a regional conflict is redrawing inflation, alliances, and the domestic politics of every great power. Energy shock, stagflation, food crisis, geopolitical recomposition and three scenarios to 2027.16 min readgeopoliticsHormuz: the supply chain takes the hit, the bill is already hereThe mid-June ceasefire took the war premium out of oil prices, but not the ships out of the queues. Five months after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the damage to the global supply chain is already measurable: doubled freight, European gas under strain, rationed fertiliser. A quantified, sourced assessment.13 min readoilCushing: the Oklahoma terminal that sets the US oil priceThe Cushing tanks, the delivery point of the WTI contract, fell to about 19.7 million barrels in late June 2026, close to their operating floor. An explainer of this pipeline crossroads, a read of the EIA data and scenarios, including one where China starts buying again.9 min readgeopoliticsThe Hormuz crisis: Asia's bill for an energy shock, at the hour of the truceA quantified, sourced assessment of the effects of the Strait of Hormuz blockade on Asia, from India to Japan: revised growth, imported inflation, industrial shortages, food threat. As the 17 June MoU begins a fragile reopening, the cumulative bill stays heavy and will take months to absorb.