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English analysis

Page 2 of 8. Selected l0g analysis pieces translated from the French corpus, newest first.Back to the latest →

11 min readaiHow American Is America's AI Boom?The United States concentrates AI demand, software and data centres, but its investment boom relies on a heavily imported hardware chain. A breakdown of the value actually produced at home.11 min readrecessionDo strip clubs really predict recessions?Tips, underwear, boxes and temp workers: four unlikely economic indicators tested against the data.8 min readunited-statesUS GDP: 1.5% on the surface, 3.9% in private demandUS GDP slowed to 1.5% in the second quarter, but private domestic demand accelerated to 3.9%. A breakdown of the headline that further complicates the Fed's task.8 min readyenYen: 163,412 net short contracts before the shockThe 28 July COT shows 163,412 net contracts against the yen. It measures pre-shock positioning, not yet an unwind of the global carry trade.13 min readinvestment fundsEuropean risk, national supervisionThe LDI shock exposed fragmented oversight: Irish or Luxembourg funds, UK risk, European coordination and Bank of England intervention.9 min readinvestment fundsEuropean funds, American portfoliosIn Q1 2026, Irish funds made €135 billion of net purchases in equities and bonds, including €66 billion in US securities. The figure reveals a channel to Wall Street, but not yet the European origin of the capital.12 min readinvestment fundsA US shock returns through European financial plumbingRedemptions, FX hedges, margin calls and bank links form the documented route by which a US asset shock can become a European liquidity strain.11 min readirelandTwo small states, €12 trillion in transitAt 31 March 2026, funds domiciled in Ireland and Luxembourg held €11.875 trillion in net assets. The latest observations lift the sum to €12.301 trillion, but at two different dates.14 min readJPMorganAfter the fines: the black box inside JPMorgan market surveillanceRegulators required JPMorgan to conduct a retrospective review, hire an independent consultant, implement remediation and report progress. The contents remain absent from the public record. Part two explains sponsored access, the surveillance chain and the risk still open to measurement.14 min readJPMorganThe market beyond the screen: billions of order messages outside JPMorgan surveillanceFrom 2014 to 2021, JPMorgan failed to feed more than 99% of the order messages on one US venue into its surveillance systems. Part one connects the manipulation admitted in 2020, the gap discovered in 2021 and the 2024 sanctions without treating a control failure as proof of new abuse.21 min readapolloThe balance sheet Apollo does not consolidateAthora left Athene's accounting perimeter in 2018. Yet Apollo and Athene still hold 26% of its shares, appoint five directors, manage or advise $57.2 billion of its assets and supported its acquisition of PIC. An eight-year investigation into legal separation, economic dependencies and risks now exposed to the United Kingdom.19 min readapolloWhen the warehouse does not clear: Atlas risk inside the Apollo-Athene machineAtlas finances pools of receivables before sale or securitisation. Athene held $6.146 billion of securities issued by Atlas or affiliates at 31 March 2026, had another $1.343 billion of commitments and sits in a $2.5 billion guarantee chain to Credit Suisse. An investigation into liquidity, valuation and related-party risk disclosed across separate notes.14 min readtreasuriesThe Treasury toll: who controls access to clearing?Mandatory Treasury clearing reduces bilateral risk but moves margin, liquidity and market access toward a small set of critical intermediaries.13 min readfedWarsh removes the compass: the cost of a Fed without guidanceRates held at 3.50-3.75%, a 9-3 vote and higher long yields: Kevin Warsh's wager on a less directive Fed facing a divided committee.12 min readMedicare AdvantageThe synthetic patient: the diagnosis that paysMedicare Advantage pays more when an enrollee looks sicker. Inside diagnosis coding, patient selection and a projected $76bn payment gap.11 min readprivate creditPrivate credit: risk begins where the data endsThe FSB captures $220bn of bank credit lines to private credit funds, while commercial estimates exceed twice that amount. Inside the regulatory data gap.8 min readinternationalHeld to maturityUS banks carry $325 billion of unrealized losses on their bonds. Two thirds, $214 billion, sit in an accounting category, held-to-maturity, where the rule allows not counting them as long as the bonds are not sold. And for nearly every bank, a filter keeps even the visible losses out of regulatory capital. SVB exposed the flaw: the loss stays invisible until the second a run forces the sale. The fix passed after 2023 is being unwound.26 min readinternationalApollo, the triangular dominoAn investigation into Apollo Global Management, Wall Street's most ingenious asset manager and the first to cross a trillion dollars under management. Behind the performance sits a closed triangle: Apollo originates private credit, its insurer Athene buys it with the retirement savings of hundreds of thousands of Americans, and offshore reinsurance in Bermuda thins the regulatory capital held against it all. Atop the machine, a founder, Leon Black, brought down by $158m to $170m in payments to Jeffrey Epstein, whose shockwave has not stopped climbing the house. Sources, court records and public documents.12 min readinternationalThe lender of next-to-last resortAn investigation into the Federal Home Loan Banks, the most opaque and least watched arm of US public finance. Eleven government banks born of the Great Depression, an implicit federal guarantee worth close to seven billion dollars a year, a housing mission reduced to a rounding error, and a 1987 legal privilege that puts them ahead of the FDIC when a bank fails. Today one of their biggest clients is Apollo's insurer, borrowing at a subsidised rate to fund private credit. Portrait of a subsidy that changed hands.19 min readinternationalThe risk that goes in circlesAn investigation into synthetic risk transfer, the most elegant and most circular mechanism in US finance. A bank keeps its loans on its balance sheet but sells their risk to a hedge fund, often with money the bank itself lent it. The loan does not move, the risk seems to vanish, the capital is freed. More than a trillion dollars of loans are already hedged this way, and AI data-centre debt is pouring in. Anatomy of a circle regulators are only starting to see.