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2 min readprivate equityZombie funds: the great illusion of private valuations hits its limitsBetween unsellable assets, continuation funds and portfolio-backed loans, private equity faces a silent valuation crisis. Behind stable NAVs hides a liquidity problem that worries investors more and more.10 min readmacroThe dollar rebound: how far before the central banks strike back?The DXY rose 2.3% in June to a 13-month high as the yen stayed above 160. Compare Fed, BoJ and ECB forces behind the move and its limits.4 min readmacroDe-dollarisation: the narrative versus the numbersIMF, SWIFT and BIS data show slow dollar diversification, no successor currency and a clearer shift into gold. What the numbers support.8 min readmacroGold and central banks: the silent de-dollarisation counted in tonnesGold overtook the euro as the second reserve asset after central banks bought 863 tonnes in 2025. The data show diversification, opacity and limits.3 min readmacroUS inflation: the March 2026 energy shock, read in the numbersThe US price index jumps to 3.3% year on year in March 2026, driven almost entirely by gasoline. Beneath the surface, core inflation stays contained. What the BLS report says, and why the distinction is the whole point.7 min readfedThe Fed's balance sheet, Kevin Warsh's first battlefieldWarsh wants a smaller Fed balance sheet but takes over after QT ended. See the reserve constraint and policy choices shaping his mandate.5 min readmacroUS regional banks: from the 2023 panic to liquidity reformThree regional banks failed in seven weeks in 2023 after deposit runs. Review BTFP, reserve conditions and the Fed's 2026 liquidity reform debate.5 min readmacroThe Treasury basis trade: the leveraged arbitrage at the heart of US debtThe Treasury basis trade uses about 20x leverage across futures and repo. See how forced unwinds can amplify stress in the US debt market.8 min readmacroUS debt: the awakening of the term premiumThe US term premium is positive again as federal debt and interest costs rise. See how Fed runoff, foreign demand and fiscal risk affect long-term yields.9 min readyenThe yen carry trade: the fuse is now in Japanese bondsJapan's 10-year yield reached 2.88% in July 2026. See how higher JGB rates can unwind yen-funded positions across bonds, equities and currencies.4 min readmacroThe cross-currency basis: the hidden price of the dollar, when the law of international finance breaksFX swaps can price dollars above covered interest parity. Learn why bank balance-sheet constraints sustain the basis and signal dollar funding stress.5 min readmacroEurodollars: the offshore dollar, the debt no one sees in fullBIS data show $14.3tn of offshore dollar credit and over $25tn of non-bank FX swap obligations. How hidden dollar funding creates systemic risk.26 min readfinanceThe silent contagion: how private credit weaves an invisible web across banks, insurers, equities, crypto and stablecoinsMap five transmission channels from private credit into banks, life insurers, BDCs, stablecoins and Japanese bonds, with three dated scenarios.7 min readprivate creditPrivate credit: one asset, two pricesListed BDCs traded near 0.83x book while non-traded funds marked similar loans near par. See how stale NAVs create first-mover risk.7 min readmacroRepo and collateral: where liquidity is made, and where it breaksThe repo market funds Treasuries and leverage with overnight secured loans. Learn how SOFR, dealer balance sheets and collateral trigger stress.4 min readmacroCollateral and rehypothecation: one security, several owners, and the keystone of the whole plumbingA Treasury can support several loans as collateral is reused across repo and shadow banking. See how velocity creates liquidity and freeze risk.4 min readmacroShadow banking: non-bank intermediation has overtaken the banksNon-bank finance holds $256.8tn, or 51% of global assets. Map hedge funds, money markets, private credit and vulnerabilities tracked by the FSB.9 min readriskThe migration of credit risk: out of the banks, out of sightNon-bank finance now holds more than half of global financial assets. See where credit risk moved after 2008 and how banks reconnect to private markets.8 min readaiAI and productivity: between measured gains and assumed effectsOne controlled study finds a coding task completed 55.8% faster; another finds 14% more support cases per hour. Macro evidence remains missing.9 min readmarketsThe bubble within the bubble: valuations, AI and inflated earningsThe S&P 500 looks even more expensive when earnings are adjusted for elevated margins. Test the bubble case, AI expectations and the main counterarguments.