l0grisk intelligence · english

// scenario calculator · v1.0.0

A centimetre has no fixed price

Its value depends on where it is measured, how much capacity it might keep online and for how long. The calculator keeps those questions separate.

Preset capacities are documented. Replacement price, duration, local lift and intervention cost remain your assumptions.

SCENARIO CALCULATOR

Put a price on your assumptions

Choose maintained capacity, time gained and a replacement cost. Local water lift remains a separate input, never an automatic conversion into megawatts.

local calculation · zero tracker

Starting exercises

Only the capacity figures come from published data. Duration, price, lift and intervention cost are adjustable assumptions.

Scenario assumptions

Capacity kept onlineMW
Operating time preservedh
Replacement electricity price€/MWh
Local lift attributed to the workscm
Intervention cost€

Results

Gross replacement cost avoided€2.54m
Energy preserved
16.92 GWh
Indicative gross value per centimetre
€507.6k
Break-even duration
3.94 d
Balance after intervention cost
-€7.46m

The entered cost is not recovered over the selected duration.

This result does not measure a physical relationship between water level and output. It values only the displayed scenario.

Visible formulas

A simple calculation, with no discounting or market optimisation.

Énergie / Energy = MW × hCoût brut / Gross cost = MWh × €/MWhValeur / Value per cm = coût brut / gross cost ÷ cmSeuil / Break-even = coût travaux / intervention cost ÷ (MW × €/MWh)
Scope and limitations

Excluded: balancing, congestion, thermal starts, fuel, carbon, hedges, ecological effects, navigation and safety value. The duration actually preserved and the lift attributable to works require a separate hydrological counterfactual.

Sources for preset capacities
  1. MVM Paksi Atomerőmű, low-water operating notice, 30 July 2026Observed Paks site capacity, operating-water requirements and pump-intake constraint
  2. Nuclearelectrica, published installed capacity for Cernavodă Unit 2Observed installed capacity of 704.8 MWe, rounded to 705 MW in the preset
  3. Nuclearelectrica, Unit 2 status update, 4 August 2026Observed local level increase after public works, without a quantified counterfactual

Model v1.0.0

// what is valued

A conditional result

Gross avoided cost is preserved energy multiplied by a replacement price. Dividing it by the local lift produces an indicative value per centimetre, not a physical law of the river.

// the economic test

Would the works pay back?

Break-even duration is the operating time required to cover the entered intervention cost. It settles neither safety nor environmental and navigation trade-offs.