{
  "id": "danube-centimetre-value",
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "asOf": "2026-08-20",
  "status": "scenario-model",
  "language": "bilingual",
  "defaults": {
    "capacityMW": 705,
    "durationHours": 24,
    "replacementPriceEurMWh": 150,
    "localLiftCm": 5,
    "interventionCostEur": 10000000
  },
  "limits": {
    "capacityMW": {
      "min": 0,
      "max": 5000
    },
    "durationHours": {
      "min": 0,
      "max": 2160
    },
    "replacementPriceEurMWh": {
      "min": 0,
      "max": 1000
    },
    "localLiftCm": {
      "min": 0.1,
      "max": 200
    },
    "interventionCostEur": {
      "min": 0,
      "max": 500000000
    }
  },
  "presets": [
    {
      "id": "cernavoda-unit",
      "labelFr": "Une unité de Cernavodă",
      "labelEn": "One Cernavodă unit",
      "noteFr": "705 MW installés, arrondis à partir des 704,8 MW publiés pour l’unité 2.",
      "noteEn": "705 MW installed, rounded from the published 704.8 MW for Unit 2.",
      "inputs": {
        "capacityMW": 705,
        "durationHours": 24,
        "replacementPriceEurMWh": 150,
        "localLiftCm": 5,
        "interventionCostEur": 10000000
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "paks-turbogenerator",
      "labelFr": "Un turbogénérateur de Paks",
      "labelEn": "One Paks turbine-generator",
      "noteFr": "250 MW illustratifs, soit la moitié d’un bloc de 500 MW.",
      "noteEn": "An illustrative 250 MW, half of one 500 MW unit.",
      "inputs": {
        "capacityMW": 250,
        "durationHours": 24,
        "replacementPriceEurMWh": 150,
        "localLiftCm": 5,
        "interventionCostEur": 10000000
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "paks-site",
      "labelFr": "Le site complet de Paks",
      "labelEn": "The full Paks site",
      "noteFr": "2 000 MW installés répartis entre quatre blocs.",
      "noteEn": "2,000 MW installed across four units.",
      "inputs": {
        "capacityMW": 2000,
        "durationHours": 24,
        "replacementPriceEurMWh": 150,
        "localLiftCm": 5,
        "interventionCostEur": 10000000
      }
    }
  ],
  "units": {
    "capacityMW": "MW maintained in operation",
    "durationHours": "hours of operation preserved",
    "replacementPriceEurMWh": "EUR per MWh",
    "localLiftCm": "centimetres at the relevant local gauge or intake",
    "interventionCostEur": "EUR"
  },
  "formulas": {
    "preservedEnergy": "E (MWh) = maintained capacity (MW) × duration (h)",
    "grossAvoidedCost": "Gross avoided cost (€) = E (MWh) × replacement price (€/MWh)",
    "grossValuePerCm": "Indicative gross value per centimetre (€ / cm) = gross avoided cost (€) ÷ local lift (cm)",
    "breakEven": "Break-even duration (h) = intervention cost (€) ÷ [maintained capacity (MW) × replacement price (€/MWh)]",
    "netBalance": "Net scenario balance (€) = gross avoided cost (€) − intervention cost (€)"
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "MVM Paksi Atomerőmű, low-water operating notice, 30 July 2026",
      "url": "https://atomeromu.mvm.hu/hu-HU/Rolunk/Hirek/20260730_leallas",
      "role": "Observed Paks site capacity, operating-water requirements and pump-intake constraint"
    },
    {
      "label": "Nuclearelectrica, published installed capacity for Cernavodă Unit 2",
      "url": "https://nuclearelectrica.ro/ir/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2025/07/Proiect-Componenta-integrala-a-planului-de-selectie-1.pdf",
      "role": "Observed installed capacity of 704.8 MWe, rounded to 705 MW in the preset"
    },
    {
      "label": "Nuclearelectrica, Unit 2 status update, 4 August 2026",
      "url": "https://nuclearelectrica.ro/ir/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2026/08/en-RC-update-status-U2-.pdf",
      "role": "Observed local level increase after public works, without a quantified counterfactual"
    }
  ],
  "scope": {
    "includes": [
      "scenario energy",
      "gross replacement cost",
      "gross value per local centimetre",
      "simple undiscounted break-even duration",
      "net balance after intervention cost"
    ],
    "excludes": [
      "physical water-level-to-power relationship",
      "hourly market dispatch",
      "balancing and congestion costs",
      "fuel and carbon costs",
      "hedges",
      "ecological and navigation impacts",
      "safety value"
    ],
    "warning": "The local lift, preserved duration and replacement price are separate assumptions. No preset establishes a causal physical relationship between one centimetre and a fixed number of megawatts."
  }
}