l0grisk intelligence · english

// analysis tool · v1.0.0

The reservoir arbitrator

Stored water is not automatically usable, and generating now is not always optimal.

Local teaching scenario. No live price, hydrological forecast or remote calculation.

// l0g tool

The reservoir arbitrator

Compare an immediate sale, waiting, and a pumping cycle. This is a teaching model, not a hydrological forecast or a real dispatch engine.

Illustrative scenario. No user data is stored.

Usable now75.0 GWhThe scenario favours waiting
Withheld or unavailable25.0 GWh
Gross value now5.63 M€
Expected future gross value7.42 M€
Future break-even price83.3 €/MWh

Gross values before fixed costs, grid constraints, future inflows, ecological flows, tax and contracts. A water allocation cannot be converted automatically into GWh.

Method, formulas and sources

For a reservoir, the model subtracts strategic reserves, user-converted non-power allocations and technical unavailability from published stock. It compares an immediate sale with a future value weighted by the assumed share still usable. For pumped storage, it applies round-trip efficiency to pumping energy and compares future revenue with the purchase cost.

  • Usable = published stock - reserve - non-power allocation - unavailability
  • Expected future value = usable × future availability × future price
  • Future threshold = current price ÷ future availability
  • Pumped output = pumping energy × round-trip efficiency
  1. RTE, hydropower generation and water opportunity value
  2. NVE/RME, what is water value?
  3. ElCom Directive 1/2026, Swiss hydropower reserve
  4. ENTSO-E Transparency Platform, stored-energy methodology

Model v1.0.0 · 2026-08-21