l0grisk intelligence · english

// analysis tool · v1.0.0

The model and the pump

A positive margin for a bidding zone does not describe every local physical constraint.

Three illustrative scenarios. No real grid flow, forecast or remote calculation.

// l0g tool

The model and the pump

The same scenario produces two verdicts: one margin for the whole bidding zone and one for a sub-region. The tool illustrates the gap between aggregate adequacy and local constraints.

Bidding zone
Sub-region

Local teaching scenario with no network call, cookie or storage.

Zonal margin after measures100 MWMeasures save the zone, but the local pocket remains short
Margin before the water shock1000 MW
Margin after the shock, before measures-500 MW
Local margin after measures-200 MW
Imports accessible locally700 MW

Adequacy positive only after measures

Local shortfall despite a positive zonal margin

This simulator reproduces neither ENTSO-E nor an AC grid. A positive margin does not mean the absence of congestion, cost, operational stress or safety risk.

Method and limitations

The zonal margin adds domestic capacity, imports and flexibility, then subtracts demand and water-related losses. The local margin uses only a chosen share of imports and its own losses. No real power flow, N-1 criterion, voltage or stability is calculated.

  1. ENTSO-E, Summer Outlook 2026 and methodology Q&A
  2. ACER, Methodology for Short-term and Seasonal Adequacy Assessments
  3. ACER, RCC monitoring report for 2024
  4. European Commission, Electricity Coordination Group, 19 August 2026

Model v1.0.0 · 2026-08-21