{
  "id": "digital-euro-cost",
  "version": "1.1.0",
  "asOf": "2026-08-14",
  "status": "scenario-model",
  "language": "en",
  "observedBase": {
    "value": 3530718386134.8506,
    "transactions": 91708654727,
    "geography": "Euro area",
    "period": "2025-S1 + 2025-S2",
    "valueSeries": "PAY.H.U2.W0.CP0.1._Z.N.EUR",
    "transactionSeries": "PAY.H.U2.W0.CP0.1._Z.N.PN",
    "source": "European Central Bank Data Portal",
    "sourceUrl": "https://data.ecb.europa.eu/data/datasets/PAY/PAY.H.U2.W0.CP0.1._Z.N.EUR"
  },
  "defaults": {
    "adoption": 10,
    "cardFee": 0.5,
    "digitalFee": 0.3,
    "interPsp": 0.18,
    "interPspMode": "rate",
    "offline": 10,
    "development": 1300000000,
    "annualOpex": 320000000,
    "amortisation": 10,
    "noWorseOff": true
  },
  "limits": {
    "adoption": {
      "min": 1,
      "max": 50
    },
    "cardFee": {
      "min": 0.1,
      "max": 1.5
    },
    "digitalFee": {
      "min": 0,
      "max": 1
    },
    "interPsp": {
      "min": 0,
      "max": 0.6
    },
    "offline": {
      "min": 0,
      "max": 50
    },
    "development": {
      "min": 500000000,
      "max": 3000000000
    },
    "annualOpex": {
      "min": 100000000,
      "max": 800000000
    },
    "amortisation": {
      "min": 5,
      "max": 20
    }
  },
  "units": {
    "adoption": "percent",
    "cardFee": "percent of migrated value",
    "digitalFee": "percent of online migrated value",
    "interPsp": "percent of online value when mode=rate; EUR per online transaction when mode=fixed",
    "offline": "percent of migrated value and count",
    "development": "EUR",
    "annualOpex": "EUR per year",
    "amortisation": "years"
  },
  "formulas": {
    "migratedValue": "V = V_card × adoption / 100",
    "migratedTransactions": "N = N_card × adoption / 100",
    "applicableMsc": "m = no-worse-off ? min(MSC, card fee) : MSC",
    "cardCounterfactual": "C_card = V × card fee / 100",
    "digitalMerchantCharge": "C_DE = V × (1 - offline / 100) × m / 100",
    "distributorRate": "R_distributor = V_online × inter-PSP rate / 100",
    "distributorFixed": "R_distributor = N_online × fixed inter-PSP fee",
    "acquirerRemainder": "R_acquirer = C_DE - R_distributor",
    "merchantSavings": "Savings = C_card - C_DE",
    "publicOpex": "OPEX/transaction = annual OPEX / N",
    "publicFull": "Full public cost/transaction = (annual OPEX + development/amortisation) / N"
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ECB payment statistics, card payments sent, 2025",
      "url": "https://data.ecb.europa.eu/data/datasets/PAY/PAY.H.U2.W0.CP0.1._Z.N.EUR",
      "role": "Observed card value and transaction count"
    },
    {
      "label": "ECB, moving to the next phase of the digital euro project, 30 October 2025",
      "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2025/html/ecb.pr251030~8c5b5beef0.en.html",
      "role": "Official central development and annual operating cost estimates"
    },
    {
      "label": "European Parliament, ECON report A10-0185/2026",
      "url": "https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/A-10-2026-0185_EN.pdf",
      "role": "Parliament negotiating position on fee caps and offline payments"
    },
    {
      "label": "Council of the EU, negotiating mandate 16695/25",
      "url": "https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-16695-2025-INIT/en/pdf",
      "role": "Council negotiating position and fee-cap methodology"
    }
  ],
  "scope": {
    "includes": [
      "euro-area card payments sent in 2025",
      "merchant fee counterfactual",
      "private fee allocation",
      "Eurosystem development and annual OPEX sensitivity"
    ],
    "excludes": [
      "adoption forecast",
      "total social cost",
      "bank and merchant implementation costs",
      "fraud and support",
      "tax and discounting",
      "P2P use",
      "resilience value"
    ],
    "publicCostConvention": "All public cost is allocated to migrated merchant transactions, including offline transactions in the denominator."
  }
}